Eye on Boise: If trends hold, Idaho could have sizable budget surplus

State tax revenues are coming in ahead of forecasts, and if current trends hold, Idaho could have a substantial budget surplus by the end of the current fiscal year.

In August, state general fund tax revenues were 2.2 percent ahead of forecasts and 6 percent higher than last August, according to Gov. Butch Otter’s Division of Financial Management. Coming on top of July’s strong revenues, that puts fiscal year-to-date general fund revenues at $530.3 million, 3.3 percent ahead of forecast and 7.8 percent ahead of the same period a year earlier.

All three of the main categories of state tax revenues exceeded forecasts in August: Individual income taxes, corporate income taxes and sales taxes.

But the state’s general fund is actually even more flush at this point, the Legislative Budget Office reports. That’s because on top of the higher-than-expected revenues, the state Department of Health and Welfare reverted $19.1 million back to the General Fund in August, $16.1 million of that from Medicaid, due to unspent funds from the past year. Plus, the state’s revenue forecast has been revised by state economists, as it is each August to reflect economic conditions and results of enacted legislation, and is now $28.3 million higher than it was when lawmakers set the state budget in the spring.

Put all those factors together, and the projected year-end balance for the fiscal year that started July 1 comes out a whopping $64.5 million higher than lawmakers anticipated when they adjourned on March 25.

That could change as the year goes on, but if it doesn’t, Idaho would have a $64.5 million surplus on its hands on July 1, 2017.

For the past two years, Idaho’s had a two-year “surplus eliminator” law that directed surplus funds to state savings and road projects. But that will expire before the end of the current fiscal year. So it’s up to lawmakers when they convene in January to decide what to do next.

Kagan’s Jim Risch story

U.S. Supreme Court Justice Elena Kagan told a story about, of all people, Idaho Sen. Jim Risch during a lecture at a law school in Arizona. In the course of sharing how her friendship with the late Justice Antonin Scalia developed, Kagan said her confirmation process for the high court led to that friendship, the Arizona Republic reported, “because of an odd promise to an Idaho senator.”

“Before her confirmation,” the paper reports, “Kagan met with dozens of members of Congress, many of whom questioned her about her stance on the Second Amendment. Kagan, who grew up in New York City, said she had never shot or held a gun. Sen. James Risch, R-Idaho, told her that hunting was important to his constituents and questioned whether she could see that importance. He spoke in length about his ranch where he often hunted, Kagan remembered.

“She said she understood where he was coming from and offered to join him on a hunting trip if he wanted to invite her. After her proposition, a ‘look of abject horror’ passed over the senator’s face, she said. So instead, she made a promise. ‘If I’m lucky enough to be appointed, I’ll ask Justice Scalia to take me hunting,’ she told Risch. And she did. After she was sworn in, Kagan told Scalia about how she had invited herself to one of his hunting trips. ‘He thought it was so funny, he was on the floor laughing,’ she remembered.”

The article continues, “Scalia took Kagan to his gun club and began teaching her gun safety and how to shoot. After he declared her ready, the two began taking hunting trips together, which is when they began to bond. Birds in Virginia, deer in Wyoming, duck in Mississippi – over the years, the justices traveled, hunted and got to know each other better.”

Senators spar over judge confirmations

Senators, now back in session in Washington, D.C., after their August recess, made some moves toward approving judicial nominees including Idaho’s David Nye last week, but got nowhere. There were, however, some dramatic interchanges on the floor of the Senate.

The exchange, as broadcast on C-SPAN, began when Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, D-N.D., asked unanimous consent that the Senate immediately vote on all 20 pending nominees – including Nye – with no further debate. She said that with the Senate’s failure to act on a big backlog of federal court judge nominees, “Justice is being severely delayed in these jurisdictions.”

Twenty federal district court nominees have received Senate Judiciary Committee approval after hearings, 18 of them on unanimous votes; all await only final Senate votes.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., responded with a counterproposal: A “bipartisan package of four.” McConnell said he’d support allowing a vote on one district court nominee from California, two from Pennsylvania, and one from Utah.

Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., objected, noting that the proposal would pass over the first two nominees on the list – the two who have been waiting the longest, and the only two African-Americans among the first 15 on the list. “That to me is unacceptable,” he said. “The perception alone should be problematic to all of us in this body.”

Nye is No. 18 on that list of 20 nominees awaiting full Senate votes. Meanwhile, the Senate Judiciary Committee last week held hearings on five more district court nominees from Texas.

Idaho has been down to just one active federal district judge since July 3, 2015, when longtime U.S. District Judge Edward Lodge took senior status.