John Blanchette: Every No. 1 seed faces possibility of being 16’s first victim

SALT LAKE CITY – The evolution in insult T-shirts has been dramatic. We’ve come a long way from “I’m With Stupid.”

There’s “And Yet Despite the Look on My Face, You’re Still Talking.” And there’s “Are You Available in Sober?”

But the height of withering disrespect was achieved a few years back with the debut of a rag showing a snippet of the NCAA Tournament bracket on the front. Filling the top line – the No. 1 seed – was “You.” The bottom line – the 16 – was “Me.”

And on the single line to the right? The survival line? That’s right: “Me.”

The message couldn’t have been clearer. A 1 seed (you) losing to a 16 (me) makes you (you) the Worst Ever.

Same goes in college basketball. Or will go. Such a thing hasn’t occurred yet.

Since March Madness expanded to a full 64-team field in 1985 – with some unnecessary additions since – no No. 1 seed in its region has lost in the first round to a lowly 16.

Fifteens have toppled 2s. Just a year ago, Middle Tennessee took down mighty Michigan State. In 2012, it happened twice – most deliciously with Duke being done in by Lehigh. But it’s rare. Only eight times in 32 years has it happened.

But it has happened.

History remains on hold for the first 16-over-1 – and for the derision and shame that will be heaped upon the First Loser. The 16s are now 0 for 128 in the tournament.

Zero for 128. Democrats do better at the ballot box in Idaho.

The law of averages suggests that it should have happened by now, maybe two or three times. Which means that when it finally does, it’s going to be Yuuuuuuuge.

And that brings us to the confluence of Thursday, Gonzaga and the unthinkable.

That’s when the Zags, seeded No. 1 in the West region, take on the challenge of South Dakota State, losers of 16 games this season to match their seed. And when you’re a No. 1, the last thing on your to-do list is turning 0-128 into 1-128.

How can this not have happened yet?

Comparable upsets in other arenas are legendary, if not common (hence the term “upset,” right?). In pro basketball and hockey playoffs, it’s the 8-vs.-1s – which you’d think more difficult because the underdogs must win a series. Yet NHL No. 8s won 10 times in the first 20 years of the format. And Sonics fans will never forget their heroes winning 63 games and then swooning against the Nuggets in 1994.

Wimbledon has a 128-player field, but we still saw Ivo Karlovic – ranked 203rd in the world – whip up on top seed Lleyton Hewitt in 2003.

Mine That Bird, a 50-1 shot, got off a horse trailer from New Mexico and claimed the 2009 Kentucky Derby.

Hey, the Cubbies won! And Rocky Balboa!

Even the women’s game, where the talent disparity remains greater, has produced a No. 16 icon – Harvard beating Stanford in 1998, and not just on the SATs.

There’s no pinpoint explanation for why the grandest upset of all hasn’t visited this event – especially since the runaway popularity of the whole spectacle is based on upsets. There have been close calls. Murray State took Michigan State to overtime in 1990. Alonzo Mourning’s blocks allowed Georgetown to escape 50-49 over Princeton the year before. Western Carolina missed two shots to beat or tie Purdue in 1996 – but that was the last time a 1-16 game was decided by one possession.

Gonzaga math professor Thomas McKenzie – our go-to guy in such matters – used a figure offered by statistician Nate Silver that puts the likelihood of No. 1s winning at 97.6 percent, on average, to calculate that a No. 16 should pull off a shocker “once every 10 or 11 years.”

Meaning it’s way overdue. And that when it does happen, the reaction will be way over the top.

But then, the Zags already tasted some of that.

Four years ago, right here in this very arena, the No. 1 Zags led No. 16 Southern by just a point with 2 minutes left. The crowd roared for the upset – which seemed like sacrilege in Utah Jazz country with a Stockton on the Zags’ side – and only a 3-pointer and two free throws by Kevin Pangos saved the day.

That alone is enough to give Zags fans the heebie-jeebies.

“Of course, the fact that this hasn’t happened since 1985, doesn’t make it more likely to happen this week,” McKenzie cautioned in an email. “Similarly, if you flip a head 10 times in a row, the probability you will flip a tail on your next flip is still one out of two.”

But there are the facts and what people want to believe. Even Pangos dialed into that in 2013.

“People got behind them being a 16 seed and I can’t blame them,” he said. “Seeing a 16 win one would be pretty cool, right?”

Unless you’re the first victim. Then there’s going to be a new T-shirt in your honor.