West Virginia can be had if you follow formula

SAN JOSE, Calif. – West Virginia is one of the NCAA Tournament’s scariest matchups and many folks expect the fourth-seeded Mountaineers to upset top-seed Gonzaga in the Sweet 16 matchup on Thursday. Even though the Bulldogs are the No. 1 seed in the West Region, they are favored by just three points, the smallest amount of any region’s highest-seeded remaining team.

The Mountaineers forced more turnovers per game (20.3) than any other Division-I team this season and have a 28-8 record despite playing a daunting schedule this year. So why are they only a No. 4 seed, and how come the Bulldogs have to play such a tough opponent to start the NCAA Tournament’s second weekend?

The honest answer is that WVU is one of the most high-variance teams in the tournament. When the shots are falling and the defensive pressure has overwhelmed the opponents psyche then WVU is every bit as daunting as a No. 1 seed. But if an opponent solves the press puzzle and the Mountaineers can’t manufacture offense via their defense, then suddenly the team nobody wants to play becomes the team anybody thinks they can beat.

No. 1 seed Kansas found out how good the Mountaineers can be, getting blown out in Morgantown and barely surviving, in overtime, at home. Oklahoma (No. 68 according to Ken Pomeroy’s rankings) and Temple (No. 117) discovered that WVU can be had.

The truth is, the Mountaineers should probably have been more than a No. 4 seed, and GU is unlucky as a top seed to have to play them in the Sweet 16. While Pomeroy has the Zags ranked No. 1 overall, his formulas also ranks WVU No. 6. There is a reason the sports books only have GU as a 3-point favorite, and Pomeroy only adds one point to GU’s projected cushion.

But there is a way to beat the Mountaineers. Let’s take a look at what the teams who have figued out “Press Virginia” have in common.

Slow and steady wins the game

The first thing that stands out is how deliberate the teams that beat the Mountaineers are in their pace. WVU loves to speed teams up, and the teams that they lose to are largely the teams that refuse to quicken their pace. Baylor ranks No. 331 among NCAA D-I teams in possessions per game and Temple (No. 234) and Kansas State (No. 284) also play more leisurely than the Mountaineers prefer their opponents to.

That’s not great news for GU, which averages 15.8 seconds per possesion, nearly the same time (15.7) as the average WVU opponent. Of course, WVU’s opponents have such quick possessions in part because they turn the ball over early in the shot clock 20.3 times per game, and GU is one of the country’s best teams at taking care of the ball.

Beat them at their own game

Nobody gets to practice against a peskier defense every day than the Mountaineers. But because WVU forces the game to be played at such a fast pace, it ends up turning the ball over a fair amount itself.

The Mountaineers coughed it up 16 times in the loss to Temple, 21 times against Kansas and 23 times against Kansas State. Thursday’s game is likely to be played at a blistering pace. If GU can force WVU to be careless with the ball, the Zags can gain back what possessions they lose to the Mountaineers pressure defense.

Point guard play is key

This seems obvious, but it is still a critical piece of the puzzle. The best press-break plays involve more passing than dribbling – passes are the quickest way to move the ball and decisive passing will get the ball across halfcourt before defenders can react and reorient, even those at WVU.

But there will invariably times when a team’s primary ballhandler is going to have to dribble himself out of trouble. Furthermore, the point guard is going to have to pass out of double-teams and make snap decisions about who to pass to. Guess right, and the offense should have an immediate fast-break opportunity. Guess wrong and the point guard will throw the ball to a rotating defender, who will likely reward him with a dunk a second later.

Just look at the teams that have beaten West Virginia this year. Baylor point guard Manu Lecomte was the Big-12 Newcomer of the Year. Kansas point guard Frank Mason III was the Big-12 Player of the Year. Oklahoma State beat the Mountaineers thanks to a great game from All-Big-12 First-Teamer Jawun Evans. Guess what position he plays?

It is nigh unthinkable the Zags will win this game without superb play at the point guard position. Thankfully for the Bulldogs, they’ve got an All-American at the position in Nigel Williams-Goss.

GU will be able to help Williams-Goss out – having athletic big men like Johnathan Williams and Zach Collins, plus a passer like Przemek Karnowski, gives GU more press-breaker options than most teams – but breaking WVU’s pressure is the biggest test and most responsibility Williams-Goss has faced in his college career. How he responds will determine whether or not the Zags keep dancing.