A Grip on Sports: Which is the genius move for the M’s? Continue on the rebuild or push for the postseason this year?

A GRIP ON SPORTS • Some genius supposedly argued the real definition of insanity has to do with continually doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results? Really? Did he never speak with a Mariner fan?

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• Probably not. They would have had nothing in common. After all, being a fan of a sports team, especially a long-time ineffectual sports team, isn’t a genius move. It’s more about the heart. You know, the one organ the M’s have broken over and over, year after year and are poised to crack into pieces again in 2021.

You feel it, right? After the Mariners finished up a 4-3 win Sunday afternoon – via the miracle that is satellite radio, we listened to the game as we crossed through California from east to west, observing the state’s drought conditions first hand until we arrived at the Pacific Ocean, all the while wondering if the journey was a metaphor for the M’s years of missing the postseason – the prevailing sentiment is simple.

It’s time for Jerry Dipoto to throw caution to the ocean breezes and go for it. The playoffs beckon. Or do they?

If you look at the possibility numerically – the preferred way in this century of the Jetson’s – then they may not.

The M’s are just a game-and-a-half out of the second wild-card spot, a position they pulled themselves into Sunday with the win over the A’s. But if you head on over to FanGraphs’ playoff machine, plug in the wild-card race and hit the button, you find the computer still has the M’s making the postseason as a longshot. How long?

Though Seattle has the sixth-best record in the American League – five make the playoffs – it is just ninth in the playoff projections. FanGraphs gives the M’s just a 4.9 percent chance. That’s behind the Yankees, Blue Jays and Angels among the contenders currently outside, looking in.

The numbers have to do with such things as current record, sure, but also strength of schedule remaining and, we presume, other things like reading chicken bones or dice or which way the wind is blowing the garlic-fry smell.

So we have to ask: If Jerry Dipoto sees it the same way, that his team has a 4.9 chance percent of making the postseason, does he believe he can make enough changes to raise that number to, say, 30 percent, with a few well-placed deals? If not, why make trades that might stunt the team’s obviously upward trajectory.

We can think of two reasons. The fans and the players.

Let’s take the latter first.

After Sunday’s win, veteran Kyle Seager told the assembled media he thinks it’s time.

“I think it’s been preached this rebuild so much, but I mean we’re right there on the edge of this thing,” he said, as reported by the Associated Press’ Tim Booth. “Certainly you would like to have them make moves and get the team as good as we possibly can. I mean, I’d like to make a run out of it.”

And you know he was speaking for his teammates as well. No one wants to work as hard as they have only to be told you’re not good enough and we’re going to hold off until, you know, we can be better. They would like to make a run out of it. Now.

As for the long-suffering Mariner fans? The folks who, year after year, hope their team will contend and for the past two decades have been disappointed? They have to want to make a run out of it too, right?

The average Joe and Joey and Joan? More than likely. But the genius ones, the ones who have avoided heartbreak since 2001 because they’ve looked at the roster dispassionately, realized it wasn’t good enough and didn’t buy in?

We have to believe they want to make a run out of it as well. After all, even geniuses get old. And wonder if they will ever see their team playing for something in September more meaningful than draft positioning in a sport in which draft position isn’t all that important.

They have to believe it’s time to try something – anything – different. Looking at FanGraphs’ 4.9 percent projection, they have to harken back three decades to that genius philosopher Lloyd Christmas’ viewpoint and believe they are being told there is a chance.

And it’s better than one in a million.

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Olympics: Katie Ledecky is, quite possibly, the greatest swimmer of all time. There are others, sure, with a claim, but the former Stanford star had shown over the past decade she’s invincible in an Olympic pool. Well, nearly invincible. She lost her first Olympic final ever Monday, falling to Australia’s Ariarne Titmus in the 400 freestyle. … The U.S. men’s basketball team, this group anyway, is anything but invincible as France showed Monday as well. … Simone Biles will the U.S.’s face of these Olympics.

WSU: The Pac-12 media day is tomorrow, with players Max Borghi and Jahad Woods in Hollywood and coach Nick Rolovich attending remotely. Theo Lawson will be in attendance as well. … Elsewhere in the Pac-12 and college sports, the latest round of SEC expansion is, in Jon Wilner’s view, part of ESPN’s takeover of college football. At least the part of college football the network wants. … Speaking of ESPN, Spokane’s Neil Everett just signed a long-term extension with the network. That’s part of our usual local briefs column. … Back to realignment, expect the unexpected in the next few weeks. Though we don’t think this will come to pass. … It’s not that long until Washington and everyone else opens preseason camp. … Arizona State should be a contender for the conference title.

Gonzaga: Around the WCC, is BYU’s roster actually stronger?

Indians: Six games, three wins apiece. That’s what happened this week when Spokane played in Pasco. The Dust Devils earned the split with a 5-4 win Sunday. Dave Nichols has the story.

Mariners: Marco Gonzales pitched well after a slow start. The M’s scored four times in the third inning. And the bullpen did its job, with help from the defense. Seattle won 4-3. … By winning three of four from Oakland, the M’s made a case for pushing for the postseason this year. … Mitch Haniger is hitting the ball right now.

Sounders: A 3-1 loss to Sporting Kansas City, in Seattle no less, capped a below-average stretch for the Sounders.

Kraken: By sticking to an analytical approach, Seattle seems to have done well in building its roster.

Seahawks: Speaking of rosters, the Times’ roster countdown has reached players we actually know something about.

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• Every time we make it to the ocean, we realize how much we miss its majesty. Mountains and forests are special. Rivers can be impressive. Deserts boggle the mind at times. But for geographic brilliance and mental cleansing, nothing tops where the ocean and land collide. The interaction is mesmerizing. Cleansing. Intimidating. It is, without a doubt, my happy place. Until later …