In the Kootenai County Commissioner District 3 race, incumbent Dan Green is defending his seat against two well-known Republican challengers -- Rathdrum Mayor Vic Holmes and conservative activist Larry Spencer. Dan told me over coffee a couple of weeks ago that he would have run for a four-year term the first time if he'd known what he does now -- that it's hard to get much done in two years. The commission appears to be running smoothly. And there have been no real controversies (aside from the internal dismay among county employees re: possible pay and position cuts). So do Holmes and Spencer have a chance against Green? Can Holmes ride popularity in the Rathdrum area to victory. Can controversial Spencer tap into that deep well of Far Right resentment for elected officials to snag a seat?

Question: Who will win this race? Why?