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Spokane, Washington  Est. May 19, 1883

Spin Control

Elway Poll: Voters split on gun initiatives

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OLYMPIA -- Support for both gun initiatives on the November ballot is falling, but the proposal to expand background checks to most sales still has majority support, a new Elway Research poll says.

Three of five voters polled last week said they would definitely or probably vote for I-594, down from nearly three out of four voters polled in April.  Only about two of five said they would definitely or probably vote for I-591, a counter  measure that wouldn't allow Washington to change its background check laws unless a new national standard was set; it had support of 55 percent of those polled in April.

Elway Research polled 500 registered voters chosen at random across the state, by phone,  between Oct. 6 and Oct. 9. The poll has a margin of error of 4.5 percent. 

The 60 percent support for I-594 lines up with the 59 percent of people in the poll who said they believe background checks should be more extensive. 

Pollster H. Stuart Elway said the recent survey also indicates voters are more familiar with the two measures. In April, 40 percent of those surveyed said they planned to vote for both initiatives, even though they are basically in conflict. That has dropped to 22 percent.

Elway offered some caveats about polling on initiatives:

-- When conflicting initiatives on the ballot confuse voters, they are apt to vote "no" on both. 

--Initiatives tend to lose support over time, although a 60 percent approval with three weeks to go has been enough for many measures in the recent past. "Under this theory, I-591 looks like a goner and the question is whether I-594 will hold on to enough of its 10-point cushion over the next three weeks to prevail," he said. The mid-term election is expected to have a low turnout, with more conservative voters casting ballots, he added.

For more details, click on the document below.

 



Jim Camden
Jim Camden joined The Spokesman-Review in 1981 and retired in 2021. He is currently the political and state government correspondent covering Washington state.

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