Increased Use Of Absentee Ballots Likely To Delay Election Returns

The growing use of absentee ballots, particularly in Western states, is likely to complicate the reporting of election returns Tuesday night and could delay for days the determination of who controls the House of Representatives.

“You can have this overhang of hundreds of thousands of votes that haven’t been counted,” said Mark DiCamillo, vice president of California’s Field Poll. “I would expect that in any race where it’s close, those votes will have a big impact.”

Republicans currently hold narrow leads in both the House and Senate. Political analysts say there is a 50-50 chance that Democrats will pick up the 18 seats they would need to wrest away control of the House; the chances for a Senate takeover are rated somewhat lower.

If the outcome hinges on a half-dozen or fewer seats - a distinct possibility - close races on the West Coast, where polls close latest, could be the determining factors.

In Oregon, as many as a third of the state’s 1.9 million voters are expected to vote absentee in Tuesday’s general election. In Washington, the number of absentee voters may hit 1 million.

In both states, ballots that are postmarked by Election Day, Nov. 5, are counted. But that means hundreds of thousands of valid ballots may not be in the hands of election officials until a day or two later.

Oregon has a deadline of Friday for reporting final results, and county clerks “are trying to do everything they can, including double shifts,” to meet the deadline, said State Elections Director Colleen Sealock.

Hanging in the balance could be the state’s tight Senate race, which pits Republican Gordon Smith against Democrat Tom Bruggere to replace retiring Republican Sen. Mark Hatfield.

Two House races in the state also are rated too close to call.

Rep. Elizabeth Furse, a Democrat, survived by just 300 votes two years ago against Republican Bill Witt. A rematch between the two could be just as close. And freshman Republican Rep. Jim Bunn is fighting for survival against Democrat Darlene Hooley.

“From an elections administration viewpoint, it’s the worst of all worlds,” said Oregon Secretary of State Phil Keisling. “It’s the most confusing, the most expensive and the slowest in terms of determining results.”

Washington’s political map is just as volatile, with five House races rated as tossups or highly competitive. Perhaps in greatest danger is freshman Republican Randy Tate, who finished behind Democratic state Sen. Adam Smith in a matchup in the state’s September open primary.

And in California - where about 23 percent of the vote, or some 2.5 million ballots, is expected to be absentee - at least a half-dozen House races are rated tossups.

“This is probably the biggest number of absentee ballots cast in any election, anywhere,” said the Field Poll’s DiCamillo.

Absentee voters tend to be marginally older and more Republican than the electorate at large, he said, but those distinctions are diminishing as the practice becomes more common.

The effect of late-reported absentee counts on election outcomes is difficult to gauge, he said, in part because it’s necessary to pinpoint the counties from which the votes are coming.

“The problem is, you don’t know where all of that vote is,” DiCamillo said. “If I know it’s Orange County, it helps Republicans. If it’s Los Angeles County, it helps Democrats.”

Another factor that could delay determination of which party controls the House is the prospect that a small number of Texas House elections could be forced into runoffs because of the impact of a late court-ordered remapping of congressional districts.

If no candidate wins a majority on Election Day in the redrawn districts, runoffs will be held Dec. 10.

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