Ducks In Danger In This Shootout

So far, it’s the question of the week for players and coaches alike: Will Saturday’s football game between 15th-ranked Washington State and unranked Oregon deteriorate into one of those WAC-style shootouts with little regard for defense?

On the surface, a shootout seems likely. More often than not, WSU and Oregon have been high-scoring teams. This year is no exception.

Further, one can cite last year’s game in Pullman, won 55-44 by the Cougars.

One can also point to last week, when Stanford outlasted Oregon in a game straight out of the Arena League. The Cardinal’s 58-49 victory marked the highest-scoring game in Stanford history.

“I’m not hoping for a shootout, but I’m thinking there just might be one,” WSU (4-0) quarterback Ryan Leaf said Tuesday.

Under more careful scrutiny, however, a convincing WSU victory seems more likely than a no-holds-barred shootout, although Oregon’s Autzen Stadium may serve as an equalizer.

The reasons are simple.

First, take a closer look at that 55-44 game from last year.

WSU led 52-17 heading into the fourth quarter, at which time the Cougars made wholesale substitutions. WSU finished with 273 yards rushing, nearly 100 more than Oregon. That game was a blowout, not a shootout.

Second, with the exception of two plays, WSU’s defense has performed admirably this season; Oregon’s defense cannot make the same claim.

Even with those two bad plays - a 92-yard run by UCLA’s Skip Hicks and a 48-yarder by Robert Holcombe of Illinois - WSU is surrendering just 3.5 yards per carry. When those big-gainers are subtracted, that figure drops to 2.5 yards per attempt.

Most impressively, the Cougars rank first in the Pac-10 against the pass a remarkable statistic considering every opponent has been forced to play catch-up.

Oregon, meanwhile, has defensive problems dating to last season.

The Ducks (3-1) have talent, but they are one or two years away from resembling the Gang Green defenses of years gone by.

In the meantime, quarterbacks like Leaf and Stanford’s Chad Hutchinson will have their way.

As Hutchinson said after Saturday’s thriller, “Knowing you’re going to score every time you get the ball is fun.”

Hutchinson merely completed 21 of 31 passes for 340 yards and four touchdowns. Leaf, who ranks fourth in the nation in total offense, has so far kept from drooling publicly. He graciously discounted the Stanford game as an aberration.

“I think it was just one of those games where it was like, I don’t think either offense thought it could be stopped,” Leaf said.

But the Ducks ranked ninth in the Pac-10 in total defense even before the Stanford game. Now, they rank last in the Pac-10 in all four major defensive categories (run, pass, scoring and total defense).

At one point Saturday, Stanford ran the ball 17 straight times. That’s no aberration. Just two weeks ago, stories out of the Bay Area were lamenting the decline of Stanford’s ground game.

“I did not foresee that happening,” Oregon coach Mike Bellotti said. “I thought certainly against Arizona (a 16-9 Oregon win) we had shown signs that we could be a very good defensive football team.

“I still think it’s there. I believe in this group of kids and this group of coaches. But we did not perform very well at Stanford.”

Hutchinson is a top-flight quarterback, but he doesn’t have anything close to the array of weapons at Leaf’s disposal.

The Cougars have five receivers capable of scoring at any time. In fact, UCLA coach Bob Toledo recently said the Cougars have the best group of receivers his team has faced - Tennessee’s included.

But WSU’s conference-leading offense doesn’t stop there.

“The great thing that Mike Price is doing at Washington State is, they throw the ball all over the joint, but they’ve got a terrific runner in Mike Black,” observed Arizona State coach Bruce Snyder.

According to Bellotti, Saturday’s game will probably be won by the team with the best running attack.

And while both teams possess strong ground games, WSU’s Black figures to find more running room than his equally talented Oregon counterpart, Saladin McCullough.

That’s not to suggest Oregon’s offense won’t get its points. The Ducks can score, even if their offense isn’t as prolific as it once was. (Oregon ranks just sixth in the Pac-10 in total offense.)

The Ducks have successfully rotated between Akili Smith and Jason Maas at quarterback, and Maas threw five TD passes last week.

Question is, can Oregon’s offense score often enough to keep a shootout from becoming a blowout?

, DataTimes ILLUSTRATION: Color Photo