Democrats In A World Of Trouble On Verge Of Oblivion, Idaho Party Desperately Searches For Glimmer Of Hope In State Races

The state’s political wannabes are biding their time and holding their tongues until Republican Dirk Kempthorne announces sometime this week whether he wants to remain in the Senate or become Idaho’s next governor.

The choice is his. Either way, Kempthorne would not be challenged from within his own party, and a Democratic Party on the verge of oblivion in the state has no real hope of taking him on.

But for Democrats, there could be a glimmer of hope should Kempthorne abandon the Senate for the second floor of the state Capitol, as many believe he will.

U.S. Rep. Michael Crapo quickly would step into the Senate race, and the Republican would be the odds-on favorite to win next year.

Former Democratic Party Chairman Bill Mauk is contemplating a challenge to Crapo for the Senate seat, but even many in his own party see little chance of success.

However, being essentially locked out of the top offices on the 1998 ballot could be a blessing in disguise for Democrats.

Crapo leaving the conservative 2nd District’s congressional seat he is guaranteed of retaining no matter who opposes him would open the way for former U.S. Rep. Richard Stallings to regain the job the Democrat held for eight years before losing to Kempthorne in the 1992 Senate campaign.

The potential field of Republicans to replace Crapo in Congress could be large and possibly formidable in a district with a heavy GOP bent.

Still, Stallings, a former Ricks College professor who now is running a housing program in Pocatello, has his own relatively conservative record in the southeastern Idaho district where people have been used to voting for him.

And his strong candidacy could generate moral support, if nothing else, for a repeat challenge of 1st District GOP Rep. Helen Chenoweth by Democrat Dan Williams. Williams lost last year by only 6,500 votes out of more than 260,000 cast - and he had no real party organization to help him.

With no reason to focus on the top of the ticket, Democrats could concentrate their limited resources on lesser statewide offices - secretary of state, treasurer and superintendent of public instruction. Admittedly, none of the three has the profile or influence of governor or senator, but they are campaigns Democrats might have a shot at winning.

And assuming Democrat J.D. Williams holds on to the state controller’s office, winning both the schools superintendent and secretary of state jobs would give Democrats a majority on the state Land Board and control of state lands policy.

Republican Secretary of State Pete Cenarrusa and GOP Treasurer Lydia Justice Edwards are not expected to seek re-election, leaving those seats open, and Republican Schools Superintendent Anne Fox has generated enough controversy to make her vulnerable in the GOP primary, not to mention the general election.

But those prospects of a Democratic rebound from two straight devastating electoral defeats would all but disappear if Kempthorne sits tight in the Senate.

Then Crapo would stay in the House and lock out Stallings.

And the GOP’s second line of gubernatorial candidates would enter the fray without the guaranteed victory Kempthorne has.

Some prominent Democrats believe the party is so depleted that it could not take advantage even if Republicans nominate, as they have in the past, their weakest candidate from a crowded primary field.

Even so, the party would be forced to mount a credible challenge for the state’s top office, and that would sap it of resources needed to sustain potentially more viable candidates farther down the ballot.

In that case, Democrats would wind up with no more than they have now and would see themselves relegated to only third-party status.