Which DVD will sell the most?

The competition for the year’s top-selling DVD began this week with the release of “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.”

The question on the minds of many: Can any 2004 release top the 21.5 million DVDs sold by “Finding Nemo”?

Peter Jackson’s final chapter of the J.R.R. Tolkien trilogy faces big-time competition for the year. The major players:

• “The Passion of the Christ” (Aug. 31). The surprise blockbuster is a notch below “Return of the King,” at No. 7 on the all-time box office chart, and that could indicate a close race.

” ‘Passion’ is the real wild card,” says Scott Hettrick, editor-in-chief of DVD Exclusive magazine. “It is really hard to predict how it will do on DVD. It could be a runaway success and get to that 25-million-plus stratosphere.”

• “Star Wars Trilogy” (Sept. 21). The movies make their DVD debut in a four-disc set, along with lots of extras. The trilogy has been the most-requested DVD since the format launched and should sell millions.

The price tag is steep, and the movies won’t be available individually. But Video Store Magazine’s research director Judith McCourt says: “With ‘Star Wars,’ anything is possible.”

• “Shrek 2” (not announced but expected at the holidays). Even though “Spider-Man 2” and “Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban” also are expected at the holidays, industry experts predict “Shrek” will be the season’s breakout.

Live-action blockbusters typically can sell 18 million DVDs; animated titles have topped that because they appeal to a wider age range. “Given that track record, ‘Shrek 2’ has the best chance” to top “Nemo,” Hettrick says.

But don’t count out “King” for the DVD-selling crown. At Borders, public relations manager Jenie Dahlmann says the release will benefit from being first and having little competition.

“We have seen that any ‘Rings’ DVD has been increasing in popularity. We don’t see the enthusiasm dying; we see it growing,” she says. “We think it’s going to be huge.”

The movie’s studio, New Line, is also releasing “Lord of the Rings — The Motion Picture Trilogy,” a six-disc collection of the three theatrical versions.