Draft-day success most often found in eye of beholder

NEW YORK – In this draft more than most others, talent was in the eye of the beholder. Just look at Mike Shanahan, who took troubled running back Maurice Clarett in the third round, far higher than most “experts” thought he would go.

After all, Clarett hadn’t played in two years. He had off-field issues. He challenged the NFL with a lawsuit that nettled a lot of people. And worst of all, he was slow: barely getting under 4.8 seconds in the 40-yard dash, a time that some defensive linemen can beat.

“Terrell Davis wasn’t, so called, very fast,” Shanahan said. “But he played very fast in games and had great cutting ability. He’s got great elusiveness, the ability to make some big runs. Sometimes speed can be overrated.”

It is hard to argue with Shanahan, who beginning with Davis has been able to turn low-rated running backs into guys who can gain from 1,200 to 2,000 yards in a season. If it’s not Clarett, maybe it will be the recently signed Ron Dayne, a first-round failure with the Giants to follow in the path of Davis (a sixth rounder) Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson and most recently Reuben Droughns.

But beyond Denver and Clarett, this was a draft likely to produce a lot of guys in the second through fourth rounds who turn out as good as or better than players taken at the top.

Some examples:

•Two cornerbacks taken in the second by the New York teams – Corey Webster of LSU by the Giants and Justin Miller of Clemson by the Jets. Webster might have been a high first-rounder if he came out a year ago – Bill Belichick, among others, loved him – but was bothered by injuries last season and had a bad year. Miller might have been a first-rounder this year but had off-field issues, including a disorderly conduct arrest eight days before the draft.

Check in a couple of years from now and compare them with Adam Jones, Antrel Rolle and Carlos Rogers, cornerbacks taken in the first nine picks. Who knows?

•Two fourth-round offensive linemen: Elton Brown of Virginia, taken by Arizona, and Todd Herremans of Saginaw Valley State, who went to Philadelphia. Brown was an All-American who in pre-draft projections was on the cusp of the first round, but his blubbery body scared teams. Herremans was from a small college, wasn’t even invited to the scouting combine, but wowed 15 teams that showed up for his workouts.

Grant the Eagles the benefit of the doubt on Herremans – their recent draft history is one reason they’ve been to four straight NFC championship games.

But ponder this when considering this draft: guys like Brown fell and Clarett rose because different teams have different needs, different systems and different views of the same player. So a lot of second rounders (and lower) could have been firsts but fell because teams picking just didn’t happen to need them.

That includes defensive linemen Shaun Cody of Southern Cal (Detroit); Dan Cody of Oklahoma (Baltimore) and Matt Roth of Iowa (Miami); safety Brodney Pool of Oklahoma (Cleveland); offensive tackle Khalif Barnes of Washington (Jacksonville); and linebackers Kevin Burnett of Tennessee (Dallas) and Barrett Ruud of Nebraska (Tampa Bay).

It extended to the third round with linebackers Channing Crowder of Florida (Miami) and Darryl Blackstock of Virginia (Arizona) and defensive end Justin Tuck of Notre Dame (Giants).

Pre-draft ratings?

Clarett and oft-injured Frank Gore of Miami (San Francisco) were lower in almost every scouting book than Marion Barber of Minnesota and Ciatrick Fason of Florida. Gore and Clarett were the first and last choices in the third round; Barber (Dallas) and Fason (Minnesota) went early in the fourth round.

That brings us back to Aaron Rodgers, the Cal quarterback who was thought to be under consideration for the No. 1 overall pick by the 49ers and ended up being taken 24th.

No real mystery there.

Rodgers is a good prospect, but wasn’t considered in the class with the three top QBs last season – Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger. Even he knew that, and once he fell by the teams that needed quarterbacks, he went into free fall.

“I knew once I got past a certain spot that the next bunch of teams didn’t need quarterbacks,” he said.

As it turned out, he lost a lot of money but landed in what could be a perfect spot – Green Bay, where can watch Brett Favre and learn as Favre’s career winds down. Then it’s up to him.

That’s probably the way it should be.

Just as it should be for all the other guys who fell.