Salfino looks back at his best, worst touts of ‘05 season

Too many fantasy leagues are deciding their champion in Week 17. With so many starters on the best NFL teams looking ahead to the playoffs, this is not the week where you want to have the pleasure and treasure of a fantasy title on the line.

Of course, we do our best below to sort through the matchups for those burdened with the extended fantasy season. But first, let’s look at some of our best and worst calls of 2005. Some context: we always advise to “sell” players we think are overachieving when their value is high and “buy” underachievers who are still struggling. Thus, misses are marginalized, hits maximized, but layups not allowed.

Our best preseason calls: Chiefs RBs Larry Johnson as undervalued and Priest Holmes as overvalued (because we thought Johnson was better and Holmes an injury risk); No. 1 fantasy QB Carson Palmer (Bengals) as undervalued and Vikings QB Daunte Culpepper overvalued; Panthers WR Steve Smith as undervalued; Ravens RB Jamal Lewis as overvalued off the prison stint.

Best in-season calls: Anquan Boldin as a buy when he was completely overshadowed by fellow Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald in Week 1; Bucs RB Cadillac Williams as a sell due to overuse right at the end of his early-season dominance; Pats QB Tom Brady as buy when he was struggling in the TD department (10/4); Jaguars WR Jimmy Smith as a sell right at the end of his early-season TD binge; Bengals RB Rudi Johnson as a buy when he was stuck on two TDs (11/1); Packers RB Sam Gado as a buy before he scored his first TD; Panthers RB Stephen Davis as a sell throughout the early season due to age and poor yards per carry.

But we were not without our mistakes.

Larry Fitzgerald was tabbed as overvalued in the preseason (we liked Boldin more); we were infatuated with Cardinals RB J.J. Arrington, who we mentioned not once, but three times (at least he never cost too much); Dallas RB Julius Jones was cited as undervalued in August (and was anything but until last week); Giants RB Tiki Barber was tabbed as overvalued simply for being over 30 (though the exception never disproves the rule); and we said to sell Steelers WR Hines Ward and Bears RB Thomas Jones off strong early seasons that have, for the most part, continued.

Next week, we say goodbye but not before clueing you in on great ways to continue the fantasy excitement through the NFL playoffs. Enjoy Week 17 and best wishes for the New Year.

Buy

Andre Johnson (WR, Texans): He paid dividends last week against a decent Jaguars pass defense and now travels into San Francisco to face the NFL’s worst secondary in the Reggie Bush Bowl.

Eli Manning (QB, Giants): Play all the G-men this week at Oakland as they look to lock up a home game by winning the NFC East. (Note: Amani Toomer has replaced Plaxico Burress as Manning’s favorite WR.)

Dallas Cowboys offense: The Cowboys will likely be eliminated prior to kickoff Sunday night, but Bill Parcells will make sure they demolish the hapless Rams’ defense either way.

Sell

Seattle Seahawks offense: Nothing for Seattle to play for heading into Green Bay, so the starters probably sit. Shaun Alexander might get a goal-line carry to set the NFL TD record, but otherwise will be very limited.

Denver Broncos offense: The Broncos locked in to the AFC No. 2 seed and Week 17 opponent San Diego will be angry at home after getting eliminated last week. Expect Mike Shanahan to sit key skill players.