Weather experts tell skiers to hold out hope for snow

Look at it this way: It could be worse; we could be hockey fans.

Instead, the weather has been warm and sunny. The snow we have is soft and spring-like. I’m hearing good stuff about the conditions. Spring skiing in February? Sounds depressing, but it’s been fun.

But are we doomed to making the most of it for the rest of the winter?

I turned to two experts to find out. I wouldn’t put those skis and snowboards away just yet.

Larry Schick is a meteorologist for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in Seattle, and for www.skiwashington.com, at which you can sign up for his powder alerts.

Jim Roemer, known as Dr. Weather on www.bestskiweather.com, forecasts weather for the country’s ski- and snow-related operations. People can subscribe for specialized powder alerts.

Schick and Roemer helped me find a deeper understanding of our powder deprivation.

Schick explained that we are having a warmer winter with slightly less than normal precipitation. Of course, with the warm temperatures, that precipitation has been rain rather than snow.

What’s happened is, because of a potential El Nino winter, the jet stream has split out on the Pacific Ocean, forming two branches over the continent. Utah, California and New Mexico, south of the southern branch, are getting all the rain and mountain snow. The Pacific Northwest, caught in between the two branches, is experiencing the drier and warmer weather.

Roemer explained that cycles change every year and patterns last for months. Both meteorologists have predicted that the region will get at least 6 to 12 inches of snow this weekend. Although not enough to get us back on our feet entirely, I’m thinking Super Bowl Sunday might be a good powder day.

Roemer admits this storm is not a change in the pattern. He sees warmer weather returning the following week. He drew an analogy to the year 1916, because of its similarities to this year. For example, there was a cool, wet summer in the East, followed by an active early winter in Utah and California like this year. According to that pattern, we could actually see a turnaround for the season.

“It’s very hard to predict the weather out that far, but based on historical averages, we should see winter return after either the 13th or 25th of February,” Roemer said.

Schick backs up these findings with his similar theory based on past trends. He compares this year to 1977 and 1981.

“Both years we came back with pretty good snow. I remember skiing Mt. Bachelor in March 1977, on an 18-degree powder day, and I had the place to myself because everyone else had already given up on the season,” Schick said.

The question remains if this is all a product of global warming.

“Weather patterns change and perhaps there are some fundamental changes,” said Michael Berry, president of National Ski Areas Association. “Mother Nature dealt us a bad hand this year, but the rest of the country is having a great snow year. Historically, there have been few great snow years in all areas of the country, and unfortunately, this year is our turn.”

On that note, I will conclude with the effectiveness of snow dances in the region. Last weekend, both Mount Spokane and Silver Mountain hosted a snow dance. According to Steven Lane, marketing director at Silver, it snowed 3 to 5 inches after last weekend’s dance.

Sandpoint held a bonfire by the lake Wednesday night. Thursday, Roemer called to tell me he sees the biggest snowstorm in a while headed our way.

Keep up the good work. Our turn is coming.