N. Korea more than nuke threat

WASHINGTON – A nuclear threat is a nuclear threat. Except when it’s not, according to the White House.

Why does North Korea seem to get a pass and not Iraq, which was invaded because of weapons of mass destruction that could not be found? And what about Iran, which got two days of saber-rattling this week about its suspected nuclear ambitions?

One reason for the different standards: North Korea is in a real position to carry out its threats and trigger a new Korean War. Also, the United States is already stretched thin in Iraq and Afghanistan.

“North Korea is quite capable of responding to any kind of military action that we take with a devastating attack, an artillery and missile barrage on the South that would inflict millions of deaths and casualties,” said Michele A. Flournoy, who was a Pentagon strategist in the Clinton administration.

“Unlike Iran, North Korea poses not just a potential threat but an actual threat today,” said Flournoy, now a defense analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Pyongyang’s statement on Thursday that it possesses nuclear weapons – and needs them to defend against a hostile United States – complicates President Bush’s hopes of defusing the situation with diplomacy. North Korea also said it was pulling out of six-nation talks on its nuclear program, talks on which the administration had placed high hopes.

But underscoring its recent low-key approach to North Korea, administration officials offered only muted response to the development.

A day after she scolded Iran for its nuclear program, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the North Korean statement was “unfortunate” but that it had been assumed since the mid-1990s that North Korea could make such weapons. White House spokesman Scott McClellan said, “We’ve heard this kind of rhetoric from North Korea before.”

Both said they still hoped diplomacy would prevail.

Few experts dispute the menace that North Korea poses.

Even without a nuclear capability, North Korea is a formidable threat to its neighbors and the 34,000 U.S. soldiers in the South. Its 1.1 million-strong army is the world’s fifth largest. Most of its troops are grouped just north of the Demilitarized Zone, within striking distance of the South Korean capital of Seoul, a city of 10 million people.

Focused on the Iraq war and reconstruction, Bush has looked to China and allies in Asia to do most of the heavy lifting on trying to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear program.

But the six-nation talks – among China, North Korea, South Korea, Japan, Russia and the United States – have been unproductive, suspended since last June.

Bush critics have always contended that North Korea was the most imminent threat, rather than Iraq or Iran, the other two members of what he branded an “Axis of Evil” in 2002.

“The recent saber-rattling with respect to Iran, saying we’re not going to take the military option off the table, is ham-handed diplomacy,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association.

“It is now clear that the North Korean nuclear program is the most advanced and urgent problem the international community faces. It ought to light a fire under the White House to put this on top of their to-do list. This doesn’t mean the diplomatic process has been exhausted. This is by no means an occasion to throw up our hands,” Kimball said.

U.S. officials are treading carefully, suggesting that world opinion is generally on the U.S. side, particularly given the unpredictability of North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Il.

But that support could dissipate if the administration comes out with Iraq-like ultimatums on North Korea threatening military force.

Daniel Goure, a former Defense Department official in the first Bush administration, said there’s another reason for the different treatment of Iran and North Korea: Iran might be more persuadable by strong words than North Korea.

“North Korea is a basket-case state. It’s a total rogue regime. I don’t think that when you look at the nature of the regime, any of the proposals for how to work a deal are credible,” said Goure. “But I think there is a view in the administration that Iran can change. The mullahs are not forever. Iran may be radical and difficult, but it is not crazy.”

Rep. Curt Weldon, R-Pa., who recently returned from a trip to North Korea with a congressional delegation, said that nation had no choice but to negotiate and he believed its leaders would do so.

“They’re posturing, perhaps right before they agree to come in,” he said. “We’re going to keep the heat on.”