Playoffs give a chance to prep for ‘05 season

There’s no better way than fantasy to enhance the enjoyment of the NFL postseason. Plus, you’ll gain an advantage over your league mates who don’t follow the playoffs closely enough to spot trends for 2005.

Get a chat room or go to your local pub with five other owners and draft 11 rounds: 2 QBs, 3 RBs, 3 WRS, 1 TE, 1 kicker, 1 defense. Make the scoring simple, as you’ll need to do it by hand. Everyone is active and the team with the most total points after the Super Bowl wins.

When you’re drafting, you must predict how long each player’s team is likely to stay alive. Is two games from Player X worth more than one game from Player Y? Imagine the excitement when three guys from your team are poised to advance to the next round only to be denied by a long TD from a your rival’s player (or, worse, a player on your own roster).

As is always the case when predicting player performance, some of our calls this year were very good and some not so good. But our investing principles sought to minimize risks and maximize returns. So when our stat methodology proved correct, the rewards could be decisive. And when we were wrong, you sold near peak value or bought low and thus incurred marginal costs.

Before leaving until next preseason, here’s a heads up on players whose values are most likely to change dramatically in 2005.

Buy

Lamont Jordan (RB, Jets): The Texans told us two weeks ago that this unrestricted free agent (UFA) was a target but agreed that his feet will barely hit the pavement before someone throws millions and a starting job his way. Jordan has size, speed, shakes and hands. Plus, his powerful frame is perfect near the goal line.

Dominic Rhodes (RB, Colts): His value goes through the roof if Edgerrin James prices himself out of the Colts’ plans and, say, returns to Miami as rumored. Rhodes, an UFA himself, averaged more than five yards per carry in ‘04 and rushed for 1,100 yards in 10 career starts (with nine TDs). He’s shown on his explosive kickoff returns that he’s fully recovered from his 2002 ACL surgery.

Sell

Drew Brees (QB, Chargers): Can San Diego afford to keep this UFA after doling out mega-millions to Philip Rivers? Even if he stays, the Colts were 29th in percentage of passing plays despite being third in points per passing attempt. Marty Schottenheimer still doesn’t like to throw and that TD passing efficiency is not likely to hold even if Brees returns.

Curtis Martin (RB, Jets): The Jets won’t think outside the box and say goodbye to Curtis in favor of the younger Jordan. But the circus eventually leaves town for everyone. An objective analysis of 30-year-old RBs puts the odds of him having a bad year next year at least at 2-to-1.

Hold

Shaun Alexander (RB, Seahawks): This UFA is likely to remain in Seattle but will keep his fantasy nose for the end zone no matter where he lands. Maurice Morris (career 5.2 rushing average) is undersized but in line for a more prominent role if Alexander departs.

Plaxico Burress (WR, Steelers): Things can’t get worse for UFA Burress than they were this year, when the Steelers threw little more than a third of the time. If he leaves, Plax gets a chance to prove that conservative play calling is the reason his stats most often lagged behind his ability.