North Korea standstill strains alliances

Tension is rising in the diplomatic stalemate over North Korea’s nuclear program.

At his news conference last week, President Bush excoriated North Korean leader Kim Jong Il as a “dangerous person … who starves his people” and has set up “huge concentration camps.” The president reiterated his commitment to the stalled, Chinese-sponsored, six-party talks on this issue, but he again ruled out sitting down directly with the North Koreans.

The North Korean government retaliated, calling Bush “a hooligan bereft of any personality as a human being.” There will be no solution until Bush leaves office, the statement declared.

The exchange was followed by a North Korean test of a short-range missile last week, the first since 2003, apparently intended to send a message to Washington. The U.S. government has expressed concerns that North Korea may be preparing to test a nuclear weapon.

South Korean officials echo their U.S. counterparts in putting the primary responsibility for this impasse on North Korea. But Bush’s harsh words have also raised serious questions about American intentions.

“We are confused,” said Moon Chung In, a South Korean academic who heads an advisory committee to President Roh Moon Hyun. “President Bush’s remarks really show they are not interested in talks,” he said in a phone interview from Seoul.

“Is that the best possible diplomacy?” asked an editorial in the conservative South Korean daily Chosun Ilbo.

“The repeated personal attacks lead both the man on the street (especially in Korea) and the seasoned security analyst alike to the same conclusion: Washington’s aim is to drive North Korea away from the negotiating table,” Ralph Cossa, president of the Honolulu-based Pacific Forum of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote this week after returning from a visit to South Korea.

Without convincing others in the region that the United States is prepared to negotiate seriously, it will be difficult to gain support for any next step, including non-military options such as going to the U.N. Security Council to impose economic sanctions or a quarantine on North Korea.

“I worry a little bit that unless the U.S. is a little more flexible in our approach to North Korea, soon we’ll find ourselves blamed by China and South Korea as the ones who are (causing) trouble,” Richard Armitage, the No. 2 official under former Secretary of State Colin Powell, told the Japanese daily newspaper Asahi Shimbun.

Officials in Washington and Seoul express the belief that a resumption of negotiations to halt North Korea’s nuclear program is still within reach. While the president was taking swipes at the North Koreans, the senior U.S. envoy to the talks, Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, was sounding out China, Japan and South Korea on how to bring Pyongyang back to the table.

South Korean government officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, claim not to be alarmed about Bush’s words.

“That’s what he has thought about the North Korean system for some time. He is consistent,” said one senior official. “I don’t know why he said this now. Maybe it reflected his personal frustration with the delay in the talks.” North Korea has refused to attend the negotiations since June 2004.

The officials paid more attention to what they heard from Hill, who they said was “very focused” on resuming talks. “We are still very much on the same page,” the senior official insisted. “What the president said didn’t change much.”

At his news conference, Bush acknowledged that the United States cannot go to the United Nations without the backing of its partners in the six-party talks, which also include Russia. “How far we let it go on is dependent upon our consensus amongst ourselves,” Bush said. He repeated the administration’s oft-cited belief, however, that “the more Kim Jong Il threatens and brags, the more isolated he becomes.”

The danger is that if the United States tries to move quickly to escalate pressure on North Korea, it risks being separated from its partners. South Korean officials make it clear that they are months away, at best, from taking such steps.

“First,” the senior official said, “we have to show our people that our efforts for a diplomatic solution have been exhausted. China also will not get on board. They still think the U.S. should do more.”

That gap between the American position and that of China and South Korea presents an opportunity for North Korea to divide its foes, worries the senior South Korean official. “They are trying to drive a wedge between us,” he said.

That is one reason South Korean officials are eager to downplay their concern about Bush’s flight of rhetoric – and why they prefer even this unstable stalemate to a full breakdown of the diplomatic process. On that point, both Seoul and Washington may be in agreement – for now.

But the stalemate is hardly stable, as the rising tensions of recent days have made clear.