Europe’s nuclear-talk strategy tough on Iran

GENEVA – After long embracing a diplomatic approach to contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions, European governments appear to be moving toward turning their carrot into a stick.

But as foreign ministers from France, Britain and Germany meet Iranian officials in Geneva for crucial negotiations today, it’s unclear if a tougher strategy of economic sanctions will work. The only certainty for Western powers in such a scenario would be a big negative: still higher gas prices at the pump.

After months of fruitless talks, the European Union has begun warning that it is moving toward the U.S. position that Tehran should be hauled before the U.N. Security Council for suspect nuclear activities in violation of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

To avert a showdown that could result in U.N. sanctions, Tehran agreed to meet the three European ministers and the EU foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, for talks in Geneva today. The EU push followed Iran’s announcement last week that it was considering restarting its uranium-enrichment program, which Tehran insists is aimed only at generating electricity. The EU and the United States fear the program is being used to develop nuclear weapons.

However, any strong sanctions against Tehran would likely cause oil prices, already around $50 a barrel, to rise.

“The most severe sanctions that would affect Iran would be sanctions against their oil industry – that is, an international boycott on Iranian oil products,” said Gary Sick, a senior research scholar at Columbia University. “That would mean basically taking 3 million barrels a day off the market, which would probably cause the price to spike.”

Sick said it is far from certain that the Security Council would impose sanctions because veto-wielding China and Russia have expressed opposition.

The United States has been demanding since last year that Iran face sanctions for its nuclear program – but up to now the EU has used enticements instead. If Iran agrees to keep its program within bounds, the EU says it can expect economic and technical cooperation as well as support for joining the World Trade Organization. The 25-member EU has offered a free trade pact and more economic aid, and European officials have said they would improve the offer. It was the talks with the Europeans that persuaded Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment program in November.

Iran has long had strong trade links with Europe, and there have been calls on the Europeans to use this as leverage.

But Iran has warned that if the talks fail, it will cost the Europeans more than it would Iran.