The Grim Reaper isn’t far away from one of your studs

The Grim Reaper might have missed you this week when he was busy knocking on the door of Deuce McAllister owners, but odds are he’ll find you at some point in ‘05.

There’s no insurance policy against injuries, right? Well, actually there is, as some entrepreneurs are selling online policies for $15 that pay up to $90 if your stud misses 12 to 15 games. The No. 1 most insured player? Priest Holmes. (Save the $15 and trade for Larry Johnson.)

The better insurance is to gobble up the backups to fallen stars. This way, you can trade your way out of trouble when injury strikes your roster. Green Bay WR Robert Ferguson already has three TD catches after Javon Walker’s season-ending knee injury. Seattle WR Joe Jurevicius rose to prominence in Week 5 with both Seattle WRs sidelined (Darrell Jackson for about a month).

Will McAllister’s replacement have value? I’m pessimistic regarding 33-year-old Antowain Smith. Younger, faster Aaron Stecker has an equal chance to do something and will be more readily available. Of course, the Saints may have finally tipped over to non-competitiveness for the balance of 2005, dimming prospects for their running game.

This week’s stat focus in on the red zone. Things look very bearish for Jaguars players, as they’ve ventured inside the opponents’ 20 just eight times in five games. Only the Niners are worse. The Browns, Bears and Texans match the Niners’ seven red zone visits, but have played one less game.

Red zone trends are bullish for the Cowboys, whose 20 trips are second only to Cincinnati’s 22. The Chargers went into Monday night as the league’s most efficient red zone team, scoring TDs 80 percent of the time. The most surprising fact is the Titans’ 17 red zone possessions.

The easiest team to score on in the red zone? That would be your World Champion New England Patriots, yielding TDs over 70 percent of the time (11 for 15). The Niners, Rams, Vikings and Chiefs allow the most red zone possessions per game, in that order.

Buy

Kelly Holcomb (QB, Bills): Tough matchup again against the Jets on Sunday, but Holcomb has solid receivers and is very accurate (5.7 percent poor throws in ‘05, 9.2 percent in ‘04; J.P. Losman was at 22 percent before getting benched).

DeShaun Foster (RB, Panthers): Geriatric Stephen Davis has seven TDs but is averaging about three yards per carry. Foster is worth a roster spot with 75 combined yards in three straight games and over four yards per carry.

Hold

Josh McCown (QB, Cardinals): He gets an upgrade off the performance against the Panthers despite the costly interceptions (more picks than TDs this year). Those picks give Kurt Warner some hope to reclaim his staring job.

Tatum Bell (RB, Broncos): Too expensive to buy with Mike Anderson still the official starter. Bell is the Broncos’ best back, period. But everyone except Mike Shanahan knew that last year. The Ron Dayne flirtation appears over.

Julius Jones (RB, Cowboys): He’s been stuffed repeatedly in goal-line and short-yardage and is fighting a bad ankle. But Dallas moves the ball at will and runs over 50 percent of the time (NFL average: 46 percent).

Sell

Jimmy Smith (WR, Jaguars): He’s never had more than eight TDs in a season, is 36 and the Jaguars lost their secret red-zone decoder map. Byron Leftwich lacks touch and accuracy (16.3 percent poor throws).

Brandon Lloyd (WR, Niners): His three TDs might have value to someone even after Sunday’s zero-catch stinker. Rookie QB Alex Smith looks like he just got off the bus from Utah.