Jack Z. Smith: Action needed to delay ‘peak oil’
Oil prices hit a record high last week, topping $83 a barrel Thursday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. But there seems to be no widespread public concern, much less panic, even though gasoline prices could soon be nudging three bucks a gallon again.
Energy experts correctly note that, when adjusted for inflation, today’s oil prices are lower than in the early 1980s, when they soared to a range of $35 to $39 a barrel. But they customarily fail to mention that prices were only about $3 a barrel in 1972, when U.S. oil production hit all-time highs.
It’s true that there’s no cause for panic about the current high prices, if for no other reason than that energy policy created in panic typically produces bad results. But there is ample cause for concern as the world’s steadily escalating population of 6.6 billion people blithely consumes 85 million barrels of oil every 24 hours. The United States, with less than 5 percent of the world’s population, accounts for about one-fourth of global oil consumption as a result of its prosperity and gluttony.
The more oil that the world consumes, the more it must produce, and the more it probably will cost. Prices have skyrocketed in recent years. That’s because of high demand and the fact that the world’s remaining oil supplies are increasingly difficult and expensive to extract.
In Texas, the Spindletop gusher belched 75,000-plus barrels of oil the first day it came in: Jan. 10, 1901. Today, the average Texas onshore oil well produces a puny six barrels daily.
Don’t count me among the “peak oil” theorists who believe that world oil production will reach its ultimate zenith any day now. My guess is that is more likely to happen 25 or more years from now. Nevertheless, we shouldn’t be wasting the precious black gold, especially because higher consumption increases air pollution and, most climate scientists believe, contributes to global warming.
So what should we do to diversify our energy supplies, pollute less, reduce our reliance on foreign oil and buy more time before “peak oil” becomes reality?
Emphasize energy conservation. Raise vehicle fuel economy standards by five to 10 miles per gallon over 10 years. Provide much stronger financial incentives for electric and gas utilities to help their customers curb consumption by doing everything from buying more energy-efficient heating and cooling systems to using compact fluorescent bulbs.
Accelerate development of better technologies. These should include more advanced, cost-efficient and less-polluting “clean coal” and nuclear power plants; wind farms; and hybrid plug-in vehicles that run on gasoline and electricity and can be recharged overnight.
Slow global population growth. Instead of continuing to add 75 million energy-consuming humans to the world each year, we should greatly expand funding for family planning programs and better educate the public about the detrimental effects of relentless population growth: increases in energy consumption, air and water pollution, urban traffic congestion, food and water shortages, transmission of diseases, extinction of animal and plant species, and further loss of arable land.
Enhance U.S. oil and natural gas production. Believe it or not, the United States is still the world’s third-leading oil producer (behind Saudi Arabia and Russia). But we import 60 percent of our oil. We should expand the areas in which we allow drilling, including some additional offshore areas and a limited portion of Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
We don’t have to be a slave to $80-a-barrel oil and $3-a-gallon gasoline. But we could someday be facing $120 oil and $4.50 gasoline if we don’t accelerate efforts to develop more diverse energy sources and greatly increase conservation.