Winter’s temperatures dependent on La Niña
How much snow will we get this winter? That depends on the La Niña sea-surface temperature event in the waters of the south-central Pacific.
La Niña is the abnormal cooling of ocean waters off the West Coast of South America and along the equatorial regions. The opposite phenomenon, El Niño, occurred last year. The warmer than normal sea-surface temperatures from El Niño brought our region above-normal precipitation in the late fall and parts of winter. However, because the moisture was originating from Hawaii, temperatures were milder, resulting in less snow in the lower elevations, but cold enough to produce lots of snow in the higher mountains.
The December 2006 through March 2007 period saw several record high temperatures in the upper 40s and low- to mid-50s that quickly melted any lowland snowpacks, again thanks, at least in part, to El Niño.
During La Niña events, the Northwest and southwestern Canada usually experience slightly colder and snowier winters. Many scientists are now predicting that La Niña will fall apart over the next few months. But if this cooler than normal sea-surface temperature event continues to hold on to life, winter should be colder and snowier in our region. In fact, La Niña has actually strengthened over the last few weeks, which increases the chances for this type of pattern.
If we stay in the current wet and cool La Niña pattern from the Gulf of Alaska, this winter should see approximately 45 to 50 inches of snow at the Spokane International Airport. The normal is slightly less than 41 inches. In Coeur d’Alene, we should see about 80 to 85 inches of total snowfall (the normal in Coeur d’Alene is nearly 67 inches) with 65-70 inches in the Spokane Valley.in the higher elevations for the winter season.
A number of small storms in the Inland Northwest from late November through early March should produce light amounts of snow. However, all of these systems will donate snowfall that may produce the totals listed above.
We’ve already seen a coating of snow in the mountains, but it has quickly melted as the temperatures warmed up. In the lower elevations, some measurable snowfall is expected in Spokane and surrounding areas near Veterans Day, around mid-November. It’s possible that a rain and snow mix will be observed in the region in late October and early November as well.
In the near future, we should see a brief warm-up through early October. Rainfall totals will increase, especially toward the middle of next month. Stay tuned.