Weather shouldn’t be too extreme for Bloomies
More than 50,000 people will participate in Bloomsday on Sunday in Spokane. Whenever you have an outdoor event involving such a large number of people, weather becomes a huge factor. Dedicated runners, who have been training for months in our seemingly endless cold and snowy weather, probably won’t be too affected by whatever Mother Nature throws at us tomorrow.
But first-timers, not-so-serious runners, and especially mothers with children in strollers, will probably be a bit more anxious about the forecast. What can you expect weatherwise for an early May event, when average highs are in the low to mid-60s and the days usually begin with temperatures around 40 degrees? In reality you don’t get a whole lot of useful information by looking at averages.
Hypothetically speaking, if two consecutive Bloomsdays had a starting temperature of 0 degrees and the following two years saw starting temperatures of 100 degrees, the average starting temperature would be 50 degrees. Averages can be deceiving. That being said, it looks like we will be free from any weather extremes this year, though I personally find the early morning temps a bit on the chilly side.
Historically, Bloomies have run in sun, wind, rain, graupel (soft hail) and even snow. The warmest two Bloomsday starts occurred in 1977 and 1989 when 8 a.m., temperatures were 59 and 58 degrees, respectively. The coldest start occurred in 1988 with a chilly 8 a.m. temperatures of only 34 degrees and reports of early morning snow. Just four years earlier in 1984, nearly .8 inches of snow was measured on Bloomsday with a cold 8 a.m. temperatures of 37 degrees.
Wind, not cold, plagued runners in 1990, with southwest winds gusting to 30 mph during the race. Though thunderstorms can be a real threat in the month of May, the peak risk for severe weather events such as lightning, large hail, or damaging winds usually occur during the afternoon and evening hours. Though there have been thunderstorms on Bloomsday, Sundays of the past, none have occurred during race time.
One final factor that may come to mind, when one considers an outdoor event such as Bloomsday, is air quality. Across the Inland Northwest, we take for granted that we can breathe air free of the smog and other pollution that plagues larger cities. In our area, the three most prevalent air pollutants are carbon monoxide, fine particles such as smoke or dust, and ground level ozone. In the springtime, unsettled weather conditions usually keep the region free of any air-quality issues.
In contrast, certain weather patterns that occur both in the middle of winter and/or the middle of summer can lead to stagnant air conditions. This can buildup pollutants. When it comes to rating air quality, there are six categories, based on a scale of 0 to 500. An air quality index of 0 to 50 is considered the good range, while an index of 51 to 100 is in the moderate category. On the poor end of the spectrum, an AQI of 201 to 300 is considered unhealthy with any number above 300 considered hazardous. It should be comforting to know that in 2007, Spokane had 300 days in the “good” range, with only 65 days in the moderate range. Though this particular data was not available for North Idaho, I would expect results to be similar.
A look back, a look forward
As of the 22nd of last month, April 2008 was in second place for the coldest April on record. Though a few days of “above average warmth” can be expected during the first few weeks of this month, the overall pattern is expected to remain cool and showery.