Council’s list can help newly unemployed find another career

Lucky is the unemployed loan officer in Spokane who can find work.

There were more than 800 in 2007, right before the credit implosion. Now, according to the Spokane Workforce Development Council, there may be job openings for just 12 per year through 2017.

In light of the economic mayhem the worst among them caused, many eyes out there will remain dry.

But consider also baggage porters or bellhops. There may be one vacancy, and probably only one per year, through 2017. WorkSource did not place a single one from 2006 through 2009.

Both callings, one paying $64,000 per year, the other less than half that, are among 144 “not in demand,” according to the Workforce Council.

Each year, the council reviews 516 job categories to determine which are “in demand,” “not in demand,” or “balanced,” based on projected job openings and the number of trained workers that will be available to fill them. The results, the “demand/decline list,” are used to focus Workforce Investment Act dollars on the skills that will be most in demand when students or apprentices are ready for the workplace.

Spokane received $3.5million in WIA money this year.

State officials in Idaho and Washington have developed similar lists for years, but not until the last few years did the flow of some training dollars ride on the outcome, and not until the last two years have the forecasters worked in an economic environment as murky as today’s.

“It makes it hard when you go through a recession,” says Doug Tweedy, the local labor economist for the Washington Employment Security Department.

Take construction, for example.

The demand list is heavy with the building trades, as well as aerospace, health care, and computer-related professions. Two years ago, there wasn’t an unemployed electrician or plumber in Eastern Washington. Now union hall out-of-work lists run multiple pages.

Yet training into some of those skilled trades takes three or four years. Will there be jobs when apprentices become journeymen?

Mark Mattke, Workforce Council strategy and planning director, says jobs are scarce in many occupations today, but that will not be so when the economy rebounds. The council, composed of business, labor and community representatives, takes statistics provided by Tweedy and massages them to reflect the real-world thinking of those making hiring and firing decisions every day. “It’s difficult, because maybe right now there are no jobs,” says Mattke. “You cannot outsource construction.”

ESD and Workforce Councils around Washington are preparing the 2010 demand/decline list. Meanwhile, demand for training programs that allow enrollees to keep getting unemployment benefits has ballooned while funding has fallen.

ESD spokeswoman Sheryl Hutchison says the newly unemployed have 90 days to apply. Some delay too long because they believe their situation is temporary, she says, and many seek training in fields the Workforce Councils consider in decline.

“They’ve got to be realistic,” Hutchison says.

If you are unemployed in an occupation in demand, you may not qualify for WIA assistance, although other programs are available.

That will not be a problem for one more group not in demand: chief executives. Estimated employment for 2007 was 111, with only four projected vacancies per year through 2017. Maybe it’s the average salary of $167,813.

Time for retraining.