El Nino bringing rain to Inland NW

We’re now into the second week of December, and residents of the Inland Northwest are definitely seeing a weather pattern influenced by El Nino.

El Nino is the abnormal warming of sea-surface temperatures along the equator. These warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures have expanded northward into the Gulf of Alaska, which pumps more milder air into the atmosphere, which, at least in part, brings more rain than snow to the lower elevations of the Inland Northwest.

Scientists say these sea-surface temperatures are warmer than they have been in decades. These areas of very warm water may also be at least partially responsible for the wide extremes across the country in November, such as the heavy snowfall near Buffalo and the extreme cold temperatures.

The warmer ocean waters have likely reduced our snowfall, as only 0.9 of an inch has been reported at the Spokane International Airport so far this season. The normal is about 11 inches. In Coeur d’Alene, only 2 inches of snow has fallen.

In terms of total moisture, about 13.5 inches of rain and melted snow has been reported in Spokane for the year. The normal is close to 15 inches. We’re doing better than last year, when the airport had close to 11 inches of total moisture to date.

California has finally received some much-needed rainfall. If El Nino holds together, this region should continue to see above-normal moisture totals into the winter. However, things could change in early 2015. Ocean temperatures have cooled to near-normal levels along the South American coastline. It’s still early, but this could mean that El Nino may have peaked and will start weakening early next year.

If El Nino starts to fall apart in the next three to six weeks, then the chances for increased snowfall in the lower elevations of the Inland Northwest go up. This has happened before and could happen again.

The long-range computer models are hinting at conditions that may be wet and cold enough to produce some snow in the days before Christmas. Although our chances of a White Christmas are much less than 50/50, there is still the possibility of some snow in the higher mountains and perhaps in the lower elevations as well.