El Nino may mean another warm summer, mild winter in U.S.

The latest sea-surface temperature data show dramatic warming within the past several weeks along the west coast of South America and westward along the equator to the international date line. Since late March, it seems that readings have climbed to at least several degrees above normal near the South American West Coast.

The National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration has declared this warming an El Nino. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has been more conservative, saying, “There is about a 50 percent chance of El Nino developing in the coming months, which is twice the normal likelihood.”

El Nino is not good for Australian wheat production. If El Nino intensifies, then below-normal rainfall is expected over the next three to six months. Wheat production along Australia’s east coast has already been through two consecutive seasons of poor production due to abnormally dry conditions.

Ocean temperatures off the U.S. West Coast have also been much above normal since late last year. Some climatologists believe that this phenomenon is at least partially responsible for the drought in California and the below-normal snowfall across much of the West. They also believe that our upcoming summer will be warmer than normal and the following winter may also be milder than usual, which would once again lead to less snowfall.

I do believe we’ll see a slightly warmer-than-normal summer season, but the chances are higher that the pool of warm waters off the West Coast will weaken and perhaps bring us more snowfall than what fell during the 2014-15 season.  

Unfortunately, this new El Nino-type pattern should have little effect on California’s drought. In early April, California’s snowpack was only 5 percent of normal for the date, the lowest in history. Although the recent moisture was appreciated, many stations in the Golden State are now reporting precipitation totals below normal, especially in the southern part of the state.

California Gov. Jerry Brown has ordered mandatory water restrictions of at least 25 percent.

The big drought in the western portion of the country continues to grow. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows dry conditions expanding in the Great Plains and Midwest with 22 percent of the U.S. corn production and 18 percent of the soybeans areas having problems with dryness. That figure is up sharply from early March when only about 5 percent of the growing areas were in drought.

In our part of the country, conditions will now be drier and milder than normal into next week. However, showers and thunderstorms should start to increase in late April and early May.