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Spokane, Washington  Est. May 19, 1883

Weather: Forecasters predict mildest hurricane season since mid-20th century

The Atlantic and Caribbean tropical storm and hurricane season begins June 1 and continues through Nov. 30. Thanks to a developing El Nino, the warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperature pattern along the equatorial regions, 2015 may be quieter than normal in terms of tropical storm and hurricane activity.

During a normal season, the Atlantic and Caribbean regions report about 11 named storms with six becoming hurricanes. In 2014, there were nine tropical storms, the fewest since 1997 (when there were seven), along with six hurricanes.

And though the total number of hurricanes will likely be lower than usual, there have been hurricanes, and a few strong ones, during an El Nino year. This El Nino is weak at this point. During this type of pattern, there is more “wind shear” to the regions. With wind shear, the speed and direction of the wind changes between different altitudes, which often inhibits the hurricane formation.

Several hurricane forecasters are predicting a very quiet Atlantic hurricane season in 2015. They believe it could be the season with the least activity since the mid-20th century. But one hurricane cycle prediction company says El Nino will fade in August and this season may be the most dangerous in at least three years. Website Global Weather Oscillations says “three hurricane or strong tropical storm landfalls are likely along the United States coast.” It also states “the next three seasons will be the most dangerous in 10 years.”

Whether the Atlantic and Caribbean areas will see a quiet or active season, the Pacific Ocean usually reports more tropical storms and hurricanes during an El Nino year. There is plenty of warm water off the U.S. West Coast back toward the International Date Line, which would likely increase the chances of more activity in that region.

In the region

In terms of our weather, conditions were fabulous last weekend and early this week as high pressure sent temperatures more than 10 degrees above normal. Readings warmed up into the low to mid-70s with lots of sunshine. But, the high pressure system is expected to weaken.

The long-range computer models are pointing to increased rain, and perhaps thunderstorms, in late April and early May. Then, the high pressure ridge moves back in giving at least a few days of nice weather in early to mid-May. For the rest of the spring season, it looks like a pattern of sun and showers.

Contact Randy Mann at www.facebook. com/wxmann, or go to www.longrange weather.com for more information.