Colts vs. Patriots: Key matchups in AFC title game

When the Colts have the ball

Andrew Luck led the NFL in TD passes with 40, and he’s proven himself a real force in his three pro seasons. Except, that is, against New England. Luck stands 0-3 vs. the Patriots – the only team he’s played more than once and not beaten. The Colts have been outscored 144-66 in those games.

Luck needs to be as calculating yet fearless on offense as New England figures to be on a defense led by NT Vince Wilfork, DE Rob Ninkovich, LB Jamie Collins, CB Darrelle Revis and S Devin McCourty. The Patriots have had success confusing Luck, who then has forced passes. He’s a good runner and might need to take off a lot today.

RB Boom Herron has been a find and the Colts need some early production from him to avoid getting one-dimensional. That means a developing offensive line must seize control; a decent running game will keep New England’s dangerous offense on the sideline. Key confrontations will include two rookies, LG Jack Mewhort and C Jonotthan Harrison against Wilfork and LB Dont’a Hightower.

Eventually, though, Indy has to win some of the matchups in the passing game. Luck certainly is capable, so can WRs T.Y. Hilton and Hakeem Nicks, long-time star Reggie Wayne and a slew of tight ends produce?

When the Patriots have the ball

Bother Brady with the pass rush and someone tame Gronk.

One of the game’s all-time great winners, QB Tom Brady will pick apart any defense that gives him time. Brady has had better corps of targets in his 15 seasons, but the one unmatchable weapon is All-Pro TE Rob Gronkowski. Gronk is more than a security blanket for Brady, he’s a game breaker, and the Colts will be hard-pressed to find anyone to slow him. LB Jerrell Freeman and safety Mike Adams will get the call at times, and everyone will get a shot at – or get run over by – Gronk at some point.

The best way to slow Gronkowski and the other receivers – Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Brandon LaFell – is to make Brady hurry his throws. That means producing a pass rush, which will fall on a variety of defenders: rookie DE Jonathan Newsome, veteran LBs Erik Walden and Q’Qwell Jackson and DE Cory Redding.

Even if the Colts are winning that trench battle in the passing game, they could get overwhelmed by the Patriots on the ground. In the past two games vs. the Colts, RB LeGarrette Blount gained 166 yards and scored four TDs in last year’s divisional game, then RB Jonas Gray ran for 201 yards and four TDs this season.

Special teams

One slight edge in Indianapolis’ favor is here, where the Colts have All-Pros in placekicker Adam Vinatieri and punter Pat McAfee. Vinatieri won three Super Bowls as a Patriot and one as a Colt.

McAfee’s 42.8-yard average was second in the AFC. New England’s Ryan Allen had a net of 39.9 yards per punt.

The Patriots have a strong kicker in Stephen Gostkowski, who missed only two tries and led the NFL with 156 points. Edelman topped the AFC with a 12.0-yard average on punt returns and scored once.

Coaching

Bill Belichick just tied Tom Landry for postseason victories (20) and is seeking a sixth trip to the Super Bowl.

Chuck Pagano’s Colts have gone 11-5 in each of his three seasons in Indy.