Polls on nuclear deal yield conflicting results

WASHINGTON – Americans support the nuclear agreement with Iran by 56 percent to 37 percent. No, they disapprove of the deal, 48 percent to 38 percent.

The conflicting findings come from respected polling operations with long track records of accurately tracking public opinion. A Washington Post/ABC News survey released Monday found Americans supporting the deal; a poll from the nonpartisan Pew Research Center released Tuesday found disapproval.

How can both be correct? Question wording seems likely to be a big part of the answer.

The Pew survey asked people, “How much, if anything, have you heard about a recent agreement on Iran’s nuclear program between Iran, the United States and other nations?” and then asked, “From what you know, do you approve or disapprove” of the agreement?

The Post/ABC poll asked a longer question that gave more of a description of the agreement:

“As you may know, the U.S. and other countries have announced a deal to lift economic sanctions against Iran in exchange for Iran agreeing not to produce nuclear weapons. International inspectors would monitor Iran’s facilities, and if Iran is caught breaking the agreement, economic sanctions would be imposed again. Do you support or oppose this agreement?”

The fact that the two questions elicited substantially different responses tells a couple of important things: Public opinion about the deal remains fluid, and a significant number of people, maybe 1 in 5, are open to being swayed by the debate that will intensify over the next several weeks.

Almost 80 percent of those surveyed by Pew said they already had heard at least something about the nuclear agreement.

Both polls agree on a couple of other key points: Regardless of whether they approve of the deal, a large majority of Americans are skeptical of whether it will work, and partisanship strongly shapes how people feel about the agreement.