Delegate math: How Tuesday could close door on Sanders bid

WASHINGTON – Hillary Clinton can’t win enough delegates Tuesday to officially knock Bernie Sanders out of the presidential race, but she can erase any lingering doubts about whether she’ll soon be the Democratic nominee.

After her victory in New York, Clinton has a lead over Sanders of more than 200 pledged delegates won in primaries and caucuses.

In the past two days, Clinton picked up 11 more endorsements from superdelegates, according to an Associated Press survey.

Factoring in superdelegates, Clinton’s lead stands at 1,941 to 1,191 for Sanders, according to the AP count. That puts her at 81 percent of the 2,383 delegates needed to win the nomination.

At stake Tuesday are 384 delegates in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. This group of contests offers Sanders one of the last chances left to gain ground.

Yet it appears Clinton could do well enough Tuesday to end the night with 90 percent of the delegates needed to win the nomination.

The Sanders campaign knows a tough battle awaits in those five states and says it will reassess its campaign after Tuesday. If Sanders fails to win significantly in the latest primaries, he won’t have another chance to draw closer in a big way until California votes June 7.

Clinton is on track to already have hit the magic number of 2,383 by that point.

A look at the paths forward for the two candidates:

Sanders’ hope: Regain momentum

After losing New York, Sanders needs to win 73 percent of the remaining delegates and uncommitted superdelegates to capture the nomination.

That’s not too realistic.

So, his campaign is arguing the Vermont senator can flip superdelegates at the July convention in Philadelphia, especially if he were somehow able to overtake Clinton among pledged delegates. To do so, Sanders would need to win 59 percent of those remaining.

The Sanders camp acknowledges that will require a win in Pennsylvania, with 189 delegates. His campaign also believes he can pick up delegates in Connecticut, where 55 are at stake.

Sanders would recapture some momentum with such an unexpected big-state win, but he can’t escape the fact that Democrats award delegates in proportion to the vote. Even the loser gets some.

That means a close victory for Sanders in Pennsylvania probably would be offset by the results in Maryland. That state, with 95 delegates, is a Clinton stronghold.

Clinton’s path: Bolster her big lead

If Clinton were to win four or five states Tuesday, she will extend her pledged delegate lead to about 300.

The most likely scenario: big hauls in Pennsylvania and Maryland, and modest gains in Delaware, Connecticut and Rhode Island.

At that point, she would need to win just 35 percent or so of the remaining delegates from primaries and caucuses to maintain her lead in pledged delegates.

More significantly, doing well Tuesday would likely cement her support among superdelegates. Clinton now holds a 513-38 advantage among those party officials. An additional 163 superdelegates have yet to commit.

Never before have superdelegates lifted a candidate to the Democratic nomination when he or she trailed in pledged delegates.

When superdelegates are included, Clinton’s lead after an average performance Tuesday would require Sanders to start winning more than the three of every four delegates just to catch up.

Do a little better than that, and Clinton can expect to clinch the nomination by June 7 – before votes are even counted in California.