Decline in King Felix’s fastball concerns some
SEATTLE – Even as the Mariners hold first place with Memorial Day fast approaching, one question – one concern, really – continues to simmer.
How secure is the King’s crown?
The numbers on Felix Hernandez are studied and debated with growing intensity. Analytics is baseball’s cold science, and there is a growing chill gathering around the Mariners’ long-time ace.
The 2.21 earned-run average he carries into Friday’s start against Minnesota at Safeco Field ranks second in the American League and would be the second-best mark of his 12-year career.
But Hernandez’s walks are up and his strikeouts are down. His velocity is down – and down significantly from his peak years – along with (no surprise) his swing-and-miss rate. He appears increasingly reliant on off-speed pitches.
These numbers and others suggest his 2.21 ERA is not sustainable, that a correction to the analytics-projected norm is inevitable and will likely be harsh when it occurs.
Hernandez rejects these concerns.
No surprise there. He is prideful to the core, a quality that has long fueled his intensity and success. But when he scoffs that, “I’m not worried about velocity. I’m just going to go out there and have fun,” few believe him.
Even among the Mariners.
Club officials privately worry that when Hernandez sees the scoreboard radar readings, he reacts with wounded pride by trying to throw harder. That often proves counterproductive because it affects his command.
Hernandez seemed to validate these concerns after his last start – which, by the way, was six scoreless innings in a 4-0 victory at Cincinnati – by pointedly disputing the radar readings on his two-seam fastball.
“I was happy with the stuff,” he said even while acknowledging that, at 104 pitches, he wasn’t particularly efficient. “Good change-up. Good fastball. They keep putting `sinkers’ out there (on the scoreboard).
“That’s not my sinker. It’s a change-up.”
Even so, Hernandez is making concessions this season to his age (30) and, more importantly, to the toll on his arm from a heavy workload throughout his career. Specifically, he is again throwing between-starts bullpen sessions.
It seems to be helping.
His fastball has ticked up a notch or two in recent starts. Instead of 89-90 mph, Hernandez now tends to sit at 91-92 mph. While that’s not close to the mid-to-upper 90s neighborhood he once inhabited – is it good enough?
The News Tribune talked to three veteran scouts from opposing clubs after Hernandez’s recent starts to get their assessments. Two of those scouts are former pitchers. One was a power pitcher who had to adjust toward the end of his career.
Granted anonymity, all three were frank in their eye-test evaluations. In general, they see a great pitcher in transition, which mirrors the general analytical assessment. But the scouts also see a pitcher with the tools to remain dominant.
“Look, he’s a different pitcher now,” one said. “He may not realize it, but he needs to adjust. And that’s tough to admit to yourself. It was hard for me, and I wasn’t close to his level.
“For so long, he could just rear back and fire. Not worry so much about location. That works a lot better at 97 (mph) or even 94 than at 90. You miss at 97, you can still win. At 90? Not so much.
“He’s got to pitch now. Not just throw. He’s got the stuff to do it, but he needs to adjust. Sometimes, I see him, and I think he gets it. But there are times, especially when he gets in a jam, where he’s all ‘more-is-better.’
“The problem (with that mentality) is you overthrow, you lose location and fall behind in the count. Then you have to come in. And when you come in at 90, you can get hurt and hurt bad.”
Said another scout: “I know his velocity is down, but he needs to throw his fastball more. He’s stopped throwing it. Maybe he doesn’t trust it, but he gets off-speed happy. And his off-speed stuff is really good, but it needs the fastball.
“The key, though, is he needs to spot that fastball. He can’t play that macho game anymore. A lot of guys when they get to that stage don’t have the stuff to adjust. He does. His breaking stuff is good. His change-up is dynamite.
“But he needs to spot the fastball to make them work.”
The non-pitcher in the group added: “What I love about his change-up is you can’t tell it’s a change-up until it’s too late. It comes in the with same spin as his fastball, and it looks fat. Then you swing, and the bottom drops out.
“It’s just nasty. Unhittable. But it works because you think it’s the fastball. If he doesn’t throw the fastball, it’s a lot less effective.”
The second scout noted: “One thing that has always separated Felix from the pack is his fire. He competes like a son-of-a-(gun). That (quality) is a lot rarer than people think.
“He doesn’t need to lose that just because he’s not the fastest gunslinger in the West anymore. You redirect it. Instead of the macho boost you get from blowing someone away, you out-think the other guy.
“You beat him with your brains and your arm instead of just your arm. It’s the greatest feeling in the world when you tie a hitter up in knots. That just demoralizes a hitter, and you can feel it.
“You beat a hitter with pure power, and he tips his cap. He can accept that. But you out-think him, and you get in his head for the rest of the game. Maybe the rest of the series. And the next time you face him.
“Felix gets a taste for that, look out. He could have another five years; I mean another five big years. If he doesn’t adjust, he’ll continue to slide. He’ll be good for a while but not great. And then not even good. Just ordinary.”
The former power pitcher said: “Every power guy loses his stuff after a while. And with Felix, there’s a lot of innings on that arm. So, sure, his velocity isn’t what it once was. Some guys just can’t adjust.
“Look at (Detroit right-hander) Justin Verlander. He was as good as anybody for a couple of years. But he’s older, and he’s lost a bit. Not a lot, but it doesn’t have to be a lot. Losing just a little makes a big difference.
“(Verlander) still tries to pitch like a power guy. Some days it works, but some days it doesn’t. The thing is, I don’t know if Verlander has the tools to pitch effectively any other way. But Felix does. The question is: Will he?”