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Spokane, Washington  Est. May 19, 1883

Venezuelan opposition turns to protests, talks and National Assembly

By Jim Wyss Tribune News Service

Venezuela’s cornered opposition will open up three fronts in the coming week against the Nicolas Maduro administration that range from the conciliatory – dialogue – to the provocative – a march on the presidential palace.

The strategies share the same goal: cut Maduro’s tenure short in hopes of saving the country from a deepening economic, social and humanitarian crisis. But it remains far from clear whether any tactic will work against a socialist regime accused of trampling the constitution to cling to power.

The struggle was set to begin Sunday on Margarita Island, off Venezuela’s northeastern coast, with a meeting between factions of the opposition and the government. Mediated by the Vatican, it is the first time the two parties have met publicly since 2014.

But prominent members of the MUD opposition coalition say they’re unwilling to participate unless the government takes immediate actions.

In a letter to Pope Francis, Human Rights Watch said the administration needs to free political prisoners, allow a recall referendum and acknowledge that there’s a humanitarian crisis in the country for the talks to have any meaning.

“Otherwise, it will only serve as yet another excuse for Venezuelan authorities to delay measures that are desperately needed to protect human rights and restore minimum democratic standards in Venezuela,” the organization wrote.

People close to the conversations say MUD Executive Secretary Jesus Torrealba will demand that the presidential recall, which was indefinitely suspended last week, proceed. The government says the process was plagued by fraud, but critics say Maduro wants to shut down a recall he knows he’ll lose.

Failing that concession, Torrealba may push for early general elections, which would also put the opposition-controlled National Assembly into play.

Maduro has suggested that his term, which runs through 2019, isn’t negotiable. He and his allies are likely to use the talks to try to dissuade the opposition from holding more protests.

Attempts at dialogue in 2002 under President Hugo Chavez led to a recall referendum, which he won. Talks in 2014, after national demonstrations in which more than 40 people died, led nowhere.

Two days after the talks begin, on Tuesday, Venezuela’s opposition-controlled National Assembly will continue its “political trial” against Maduro. In theory, the Assembly has the duty and right to hold Maduro responsible for the country’s economic, social and humanitarian problems, said Jose Vicente Haro, a constitutional expert.

And if the National Assembly finds him guilty, it could ask the attorney general’s office and courts to press charges.

But the reality is that law enforcement and the courts are firmly in the government’s hands, and Maduro already has a record of running roughshod over the National Assembly. (This month, he unilaterally approved the 2017 budget without legislative approval, which hasn’t happened in Venezuela for more than 150 years.)

With institutional routes to change seemingly blocked, many in the opposition believe the only way out of the morass is on the streets. This past Wednesday, the opposition held the “taking of Venezuela,” a national march in which at least one person died.

On Friday, much of the country was running at half throttle after the opposition called a general strike. The administration hoped to dampen the measure with carrots and sticks: On Thursday, Maduro announced a 40 percent combined increase in the minimum wage and food subsidy, called “Cesta Ticket,” and he also warned that companies participating in the strike would be subject to expropriation.

Late Friday, the government said the strike had failed, even as social media circulated pictures of abandoned streets and shuttered markets.

But the real test will come Thursday when the opposition has called for a march on the presidential palace. The last time the opposition did that was in 2002, and the ensuing clashes left at least 19 dead and led to the brief ouster of Chavez.

While opposition members say Thursday’s event will be peaceful, Maduro is accusing them of trying to stage a coup. The administration is likely to pack the streets with security forces to block the march, and there are fears that pro-government gangs could clash with the protesters.