Zags trying to put best seed forward at WCC tournament

LAS VEGAS – After two minor upsets Friday, the WCC men’s tournament has followed the seeding entering Monday’s semifinals.

It’s No. 1 Gonzaga versus No. 4 Santa Clara, and No. 2 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 3 BYU.

Zag followers concerned about the team’s next seeding – the one that gets assigned on Selection Sunday – might want to see that trend continue.

Gonzaga can’t afford a setback in Sin City if it wants to be a No. 1 seed when Greg Gumbel and company get around to actually revealing the bracket. At least next Sunday’s show is 90 minutes, a half-hour shorter than last year’s marathon but still a half-hour longer than necessary. Leaked Bracket II, anybody?

There appears to be four possible scenarios for the Zags:

One, lose to Santa Clara, kiss a No. 1 seed goodbye and maybe hang on to a No. 2 by their toenails.

Two, beat Santa Clara and fall to either BYU or Saint Mary’s in Tuesday’s championship game. Probably drops the Zags down to the two line.

Three, beat Santa Clara and BYU or Saint Mary’s to win another WCC championship. A win over ranked Saint Mary’s with a solid RPI of 19 would strengthen Gonzaga’s resume. A win over BYU, which ruined the Zags’ bid for an unbeaten regular season, would probably be more satisfying to the players.

Either way, the Zags would have a strong case to end up as the No. 1 seed in the West. But what if …

Four, the Zags beat Santa Clara and BYU or Saint Mary’s, win another WCC championship, but they get nosed out by Oregon or UCLA. There’s a chance Oregon could pass Gonzaga by running the table and handling UCLA or Arizona in the Pac-12 tournament title game. UCLA has a chance, too, should it win the Pac-12 championship with a pair of top 10 wins, Arizona and Oregon.

For now, bracket experts have penciled in Gonzaga as a No. 1 seed.

“I’m not ruling out the possibility that the eventual survivor in the Pac-12 tournament can steal that No. 1 seed in the West if the Zags were to stumble,” ESPN’s Joe Lunardi said on SportsCenter.

By the numbers, there’s not much separation between Gonzaga and Oregon. The Zags have the better overall record (30-1), record vs. 1-50 RPI (5-0) and vs. 101-200 (6-0). But 14 of Gonzaga’s wins have been against RPIs 201 and higher (nine WCC games).

Oregon has the better RPI (8 vs.10) and overall schedule strength (31 vs. 82), despite Gonzaga’s nonconference slate ranking slightly stronger than Oregon’s. The Ducks have six more wins – and six more chances – than GU in games vs. RPI 51-100. The Ducks have seven wins against RPIs 201 and higher (just three Pac-12 games).

UCLA’s resume lags behind Gonzaga and Oregon, but the Bruins could make up ground with a successful Pac-12 tournament.

The Zags’ task in the WCC tournament is to take care of what they can control. If they do that, the numbers should add up just fine on Selection Sunday.