Experts: Reopening U.S. economy by May 1 may be unrealistic

Public health experts on Sunday debated the question of when to reopen portions of the U.S. economy, shuttered because of the coronavirus pandemic, with several Trump administration officials cautioning that a target date of May 1 – floated by President Donald Trump, among others – may not be realistic.

“It is a target, and, obviously, we’re hopeful about that target, but I think it’s just too early to be able to tell that we see light at the end of the tunnel,” Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Stephen Hahn said on ABC News’ “This Week.” “I think it’s just too early for us to say whether May 1 is that date.”

The comments by Hahn and other officials came on a day when the number of confirmed cases in the United States stood at 551,896 and the number of deaths reached 21,890.

The overall picture of the virus’s toll remained devastating over the weekend.

In New York state, the epicenter of the epidemic in the United States, the death toll approached 10,000. The Navajo Nation implemented a 57-hour weekend curfew as cases in the hardest-hit part of Indian Country neared 700.

Some experts, such as Anthony S. Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, argued Sunday that rather than a sudden reopening of the entire country, the United States should institute a “rolling re-entry” into normal life depending on the conditions in different regions.

“It is not going to be a light switch,” Fauci said on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “It is going to be depending where you are in the country, the nature of the outbreak you’ve already experienced, and the threat of an outbreak that you may not have experienced.”

The transition could “probably start, at least in some ways, maybe next month,” Fauci said. But he noted that the virus could resurge later in the year.

Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, similarly voiced caution, warning that lifting all restrictions next month would probably mean that “by July or August, we could be back in the same situation we are now.”

“Maybe some states can open up mid-May,” Murray, the creator of one of the most widely cited coronavirus models, said on CBS News’ “Face the Nation.” “But we have to be very careful and make sure that we don’t sort of lose all the effort that the American people have put into closures by premature opening.”

One governor put the choice facing the country in stark terms.

“I fear if we open up too early … that we could be pouring gasoline on the fire,” New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, a Democrat, said on CNN. He added: “Right now, the house is on fire, and job No. 1 is to put the fire out.”

Not all governors agree. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, said Friday that he plans to issue an executive order this week addressing strategies for how to reopen the state’s businesses.

“We will focus on protecting lives while restoring livelihoods,” Abbott said, according to the Dallas Morning News. “We can and we must do this. We can do both.”

Trump has been pushing for resuming business activity by May 1, people familiar with the discussions have told the Washington Post, and several Cabinet secretaries have in recent days publicly expressed hope that restrictions could be at least partially eased next month.

While the federal government does have the power to make recommendations, the ultimate decision on whether to reopen is up to each state.

The current federal guidance to avoid social gatherings and work from home expires at the end of April.

Public health experts say that for the economy to be safely reopened, certain steps will need to be taken first. Among other things, the United States should mount a large-scale effort to identify people who have been in contact with the infected and conduct widespread testing, and it should build up health-care capacity. Because the virus has a 14-day incubation period, experts also say states should refrain from moving toward relaxing their restrictions until they have seen a sustained reduction in new cases for at least that long.

While most Americans stayed away from church on Sunday, Pastor Tony Spell, who leads Life Tabernacle Church near Baton Rouge, Louisiana, planned to host 2,000 people in two Easter services, he told the Wall Street Journal. Central Police Department Chief Roger Corcoran stood outside the church and said not nearly that many attended. He counted about 330 people entering the morning service.

Corcoran has already charged Spell with at least six counts of violating shutdown orders, which is a misdemeanor, but will still report that Spell held another two services to the district attorney, he said, which may result in the court charging Spell for two more counts. Spell has said he would sue Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards, a Democrat, and any police officer who may try to arrest him.

With the next steps for the United States still uncertain, a special envoy to the World Health Organization said Sunday that the public health community is “still very much on high alert,” even as some countries see positive results from mitigation efforts.

“The virus is still advancing in other parts of the world,” David Nabarro said on NBC News’s “Meet the Press.” He added: “We think it’s going to be a virus that stalks the human race for quite a long time to come, until we can all have a vaccine that will protect us.”