Shawn Vestal: If we move too fast because we’re sick of the stay-home order, we’ll be sicker in the end
We’re all sick of this, right?
Utterly. Completely. We feel it in our gut, with great certainty: This must be enough. Isn’t this more than enough? Surely, our gut asserts, it’s time to go back to regular life. Surely – and our gut is shouting at us now – our personal sacrifices thus far should be sufficient. Enough already.
Unfortunately, our gut is not the organ we should be using right now to make decisions about reopening.
But it’s been weeks and weeks, our gut shouts. The stay-home order is inconsistent, our gut hollers. I want to fish! I need a haircut! Our gut is bored out of its mind, being driven crazy by its children, and it wants everything back, right now.
Our gut doesn’t know anyone who’s been sick or died, and is not feeling very sad or threatened or responsible. It feels only its own emptiness and sense of grievance, and it wonders why the governor doesn’t care more about that than some invisible bug. Our gut, a selfish, ignorant tribune, wonders why we can’t just tolerate a few deaths among the sick and the old and the fat, in order to kick-start this economy!
If our leaders are responsible, they will ignore our gut completely. They will be so busy listening to epidemiologists that they can’t hear anything else.
Our gut has questions. Why is this open and that closed? It asks. Why aren’t there certain dates set for reopening the state’s economy? Why hasn’t the governor given us the hard, fast, reassuring absolutes we seek?
Our gut finds it unacceptable that information is incomplete and evolving. Our gut believes it deserves a straight, simple, satisfying answer, right now.
Our gut is a fool, though, and we need to be smart. We’re within sight, it seems, of beginning to resume public life. Gov. Jay Inslee’s plan would, if cases continue to track downward, allow for the first phases to begin soon. The gut, angry, wants a date.
People have picked apart and criticized his approach – often with most heated terms for the pettiest beefs and blaming him for the uncertainties that are not his fault. Inslee’s aggressive, health-first standards seem likely to look wiser and wiser in the rearview mirror, especially when set against the national response.
Our caseloads in Spokane have never reached the worst levels of the West Side, and we have reason to feel good about where we are. And there are arguments to be made about, say, opening construction sooner rather than later.
But for every legitimate issue with the stay-home order, there are 10 other silly, selfish ones. For every reason to feel that things are moving in the right direction, there are 10 other signs that we should not abandon caution and care. Not yet.
The experts do not foresee a clean, simple return to normal, but an uncertain future, marked with an ongoing need to be vigilant about the virus.
Our gut despises this uncertain reality and loathes expertise. And so the desire to feel that we’re done with this is racing past the fact that we’re not done with this. Political and business leaders are calling for an Eastern Washington opening that comes sooner than the West Side; they’ve been doing so for weeks now, seeking this special dispensation.
Our city and county leaders haven’t gone full covidiot, thankfully. But you can practically feel the impatience brimming over. The county commission and Mayor Nadine Woodward, sails full of the business community’s impatience, are moving in a clear direction toward the idea that we can reopen here first. Maybe we can. But it can’t be because our gut tells us so.
The governor is speaking the truth that our gut simply does not want to hear: It might take a little longer to open, and the opening will have to be based on information as it develops. He’s described roughly how things would phase back to life, and suggested that construction, some elective surgeries and other activities could well open soon.
Experts at the University of Washington – whose epidemiologists and other scientists have been so vital in identifying, modeling and informing the public about the coronavirus – have predicted another three weeks might be needed beyond the May 4 end of the current stay-home order until we reach a safe level of cases.
Are our leaders listening? This week, Woodward’s administration posted a survey online asking for opinions about reopening. It’s more of a heave-poll than a push-poll, clearly meant to gather a “statistic” supporting an earlier reopening in Eastern Washington, which Woodward has already backed.
The survey asks citizens to rate the state and local responses, if they support a “regional approach” to reopening, and whether they agree with this doozy: “The progress made in reducing new daily case counts is sufficient to selectively reopening the economy.”
A true survey of the gut.
The mayor ought to trash that survey and go have a chat with Dr. Bob Lutz. Or set up a Zoom with someone at UW.
Because it doesn’t matter if you or I or Great-Uncle Phil think it’s time to reopen.
It doesn’t matter if your 341 Facebook friends have a firm view of the sufficiency of the current caseload conditions for reopening.
It doesn’t matter if one-third, or two-thirds, or three-thirds of those surveyed by an egregiously loaded survey think we in Eastern Washington should have our own special, early reopening.
Poll the epidemiologists. Listen to the docs. Survey the experts.
Ignore our gut.