Pac-12 picks: USC handles Oregon, UCLA survives, Utah and Arizona State dominate

Dec. 17, 2020 Updated Thu., Dec. 17, 2020 at 9:47 p.m.

By Jon Wilner Bay Area News Group

Pac-12 Hotline

Jon Wilner’s Pac-12 Hotline is brought to The Spokesman-Review through a partnership with the Bay Area News Group. Wilner has been covering college athletics for decades and is a voter in the basketball and football AP polls, as well as the Heisman trophy. He shares his expert analysis and opinions on the conference for the Pac-12 Hotline.

You can reach Wilner via email at pac12hotline@ bayareanewsgroup.com. Find his Pac-12 newsletter here.

Pac-12 Power Ratings

1. USC (5-0)

Last week: 1

2. UCLA (3-3)

Last week: 4

3. Washington (3-1)

Last week: 3

4. Colorado (4-1/3-1)

Last week: 2

5. Oregon (3-2)

Last week: 5

6. Stanford (3-2)

Last week: 6

7. Utah (2-2)

Last week: 9

8. Arizona State (1-2)

Last week: 10

Result: Won at Arizona 70-7

9. Oregon State (2-4)

Last week: 7

10. Cal (1-3)

Last week: 8

11. Washington State (1-2)

Last week: 11

12. Arizona (0-5)

Last week: 12

- Jon Wilner, Bay Area News Group

The Pac-12 championship game is scheduled for 5 p.m. Friday, but we’ll know by lunchtime if the game is in jeopardy.

SafeSite, the company that oversees game-day COVID-19 testing, is required to complete the process and provide results no later than four hours before kickoff.

If there’s a problem with USC or Oregon, the teams and the conference will know by approximately 1 p.m.

At this point, we don’t expect a cancellation.

But what should we expect on the field?

The Hotline sees contrasts.

In the era of four receivers and no huddles, one of our favorite statistics is average yards-per-play (both gained and allowed). It eliminates disparities in tempo that can skew the traditional metric of average yards per game.

Even better is the yards-per-play (ypp) differential.

Top-ranked Alabama generates 7.9 ypp on offense and allows 4.85 ypp on defense, for a differential of plus-3.05.

Oregon’s differential is plus-1.52 ypp.

USC is a mere plus-0.06.

In terms of effectiveness on a per-play basis – on both sides of the line of scrimmage – the edge goes to Oregon.

But in two other key facets, the Trojans seemingly hold a significant advantage on Friday.

USC is No. 4 in the nation in turnover margin, while Oregon is No. 123.

The Trojans have seven more takeaways than giveaways (plus-1.4 per game), while the Ducks have seven more giveaways than takeaways (minus-1.4 per game).

If that holds and the Trojans are plus-3 in turnover margin, Oregon’s prospects are bleak.

Also, one team doesn’t finish, while the other finishes like nobody else.

The Ducks held a 12-point fourth-quarter lead over Oregon State and lost.

They led Cal by three points late and couldn’t finish.

Meanwhile, the Trojans have been at their best when the situation is dire, rallying for three wins in the final minute.

Will either team solve its problem with a championship on the line?

If not, it should be a riveting finish.

Last week: 3-0-1

Season: 15-10-1

Five-star special: 2-3

All picks against the spread

Lines taken from vegasinsider.com

Oregon (+3) at USC (Friday): To the above analysis, add the following: The Ducks are weak against the run, but the Trojans haven’t run often or effectively through five games. Will they tweak the play-calling this week to attack Oregon’s weakness? The task is more difficult with Vavae Malapeai, their top rusher, likely to miss the game. Meanwhile, Oregon’s challenge requires nuance: Make ample use of quarterback Tyler Shough’s mobility to keep USC guessing, but without putting him in treacherous positions (for injury or mistakes). The Trojans are plenty athletic on defense, especially safety Talanoa Hufanga, but their physical play up front will be challenged early and often. Lastly, what impact with the disparity in preparation time have on performance? Oregon hasn’t played since Dec. 5 and knew last week it would likely be facing the Trojans. USC played Saturday evening and didn’t get started on the Ducks until early this week. That should make for a close game, at least into the second half. Pick: USC

Stanford (+7) at UCLA: Could be the best game of the weekend. The Cardinal have won three in a row and are thriving under difficult circumstances (current training location: Santa Barbara), while the Bruins are a few plays away from an unbeaten season. The pressure is on Stanford’s offensive line to give quarterback Davis Mills the time required against UCLA’s relentless pass rush. We like the Bruins to win, but that’s too many points. Pick: Stanford

Washington State (+10.5) at Utah: Two teams headed in opposite directions. The Utes started late and are getting better by the week, with bowl eligibility on the line Saturday. The Cougars started on time but are staggering to the finish and won’t go bowling. This could get out of hand early. Pick: Utah

Arizona State (-7) at Oregon State: Another case of contrasting trajectories. ASU is a few plays away from 3-0 and fresh off a knockout of its rival, while the Beavers have dropped two in a row and are without several key players, including quarterback Tristan Gebbia. Pick: ASU

Straight-up winners: USC, UCLA, Utah and Arizona State

Championship game score: USC 38, Oregon 28

Five-star special: Utah. Our sense: the Cougars have nothing left, while the Utes are gaining momentum by the hour. Add the location and kickoff time (Salt Lake City, 9:30 a.m. Pacific), and this is the lock of the year.

Jon Wilner can be reached via email at pac12hotline@bayarea- newsgroup.com.