Tropical storm Elsa, 5th named storm, threatens Caribbean

Associated Press

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico – Tropical Storm Elsa, a record-breaking fifth named storm of the season, formed early Thursday in the Atlantic, with South Florida in its cone of uncertainty for early next week.

The National Weather Service in South Florida cautioned that forecasters were still “very uncertain” about the later projections for Elsa’s track.

“Interests in Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts could occur there next week given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast,” the National Hurricane Center wrote in its 5 a.m. Eastern time advisory Thursday.

Elsa is the earliest-known fifth named storm recorded for the Atlantic basin in the “satellite” era, which began in 1966, according to the National Hurricane Center. The previous record was held by Edouard on July 6, 2020.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Warnings also are in effect for Barbados, Martinique and St. Lucia. A tropical storm watch was issued Thursday for Grenada and its dependencies as well as the southern and western coasts of Haiti from the southern border of the Dominican Republic to Le Mole le St. Nicholas.

Forecasters expected additional watches and warnings would be issued later Thursday and said that tropical storm conditions will likely begin in the warning and watch areas on Friday.

The state says it has created a “contingency” storm plan in case Elsa comes to South Florida when crews are still working at the partially collapsed building in Surfside, near Miami Beach.

Elsa was about 600 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands, as of the hurricane center’s 5 p.m. Thursday advisory.

The storm was speeding west at 29 mph with maximum sustained winds at 45 mph with higher gusts and is expected to pick up its pace in the next day or so as it moves west-northwest. Tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 90 miles from the center, mainly to the north.

Over the next day or so Elsa is expected to strengthen as it travels over a patch of warm water, high humidity and low wind shear. But forecasters said Elsa’s rapid pace could split the storm’s top and bottom half , which could halt strengthening.

“A fast-moving storm in this part of the Atlantic normally has a hard time staying organized and staying un-sheared,” said Levi Cowan, a meteorologist who runs Tropical Tidbits, in a video analysis of the storm posted Thursday afternoon.

Cowan said if the storm remains stacked after it passes through the Windward Islands it has the potential to strengthen further, a projection reflected in the hurricane center’s forecast, which calls for Elsa’s winds to reach 60 mph in a few days.

The current projected path also takes Elsa over some mountainous islands, another potential weakening factor.

The system is forecast to pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday before moving into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday. It is then expected to move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday.

The hurricane center says there’s still a lot of uncertainty in Elsa’s track after Day 3, partially because the storm doesn’t have a defined center, which makes it harder for models to track. Some models have it turning northward after interacting with Hispaniola. Other models take Elsa across western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Accuweather, a for-profit forecasting firm, predicted Thursday at 3 p.m. that Elsa will briefly strengthen into the first hurricane of the season right before it crosses Hispaniola and then weakens back to a tropical storm.

In the 5 p.m. discussion, the hurricane center explained that the UKMET model shows Elsa weakening to a trough near western Cuba while another model, the GFS, shows it strengthening into a hurricane. In light of that uncertainly, the hurricane center’s latest track showed Elsa remaining a tropical storm through Tuesday.

Elsa is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain Friday across the Windward and the southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, with isolated areas possibly seeing up to eight inches of rain. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.

The hurricane center said there is a “risk of wind and rainfall impacts” for portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas through early next week.

Elsa is already a record-breaking storm in more ways than just timing.

According to NOAA data, the fifth storm of the season usually forms on Aug. 31. It also formed from the far east, which is unusual this early in the season when storms usually form closer to the Caribbean.

The fact that it formed east of 50 degrees W is “more alarming” than its timing, Brian McNoldy, a research professor at the University of Miami, wrote in a blog post.

“A tropical storm has only formed so early in the year and so far east once before, in 1933. If you’re not aware, 1933 was among the most active seasons on record, so hopefully Elsa is not a harbinger,” he wrote.