Will Brandi Carlile win one of the Grammys’ most prestigious awards?

The votes are in. Somewhere in Las Vegas, a patron saint is dry cleaning an absurdly long red carpet so that a bunch of famous people and the occasional industry stooge can make a cool entrance.

Yes, the Grammys are back, albeit later than usual, after the omicron surge bumped “music’s biggest night” off its customary January engagement in Los Angeles. Scooting over to Sin City, America’s indoor smoking capital, Sunday’s shindig at the MGM Grand Garden Arena (5 p.m., CBS) could be the glitziest of the pandemic – or at the very least should allow Gucci-clad nominees to play the slots between performances.

Either way, the real fun for us pizza-ordering schmoes at home is haggling over who should win. It doesn’t hurt that we have some Washington state skin in the game, with Brandi Carlile and a stable of Seattle artists up for a bunch of awards. After releasing some of the best music of her career, could this be the year Carlile claims one of the Grammys’ top honors? Here’s a look at her chances in the most prestigious categories (hint: they’re better than the Seahawks’ Super Bowl odds) and my take on who should or shouldn’t win the big four prizes.

Record of the year

ABBA, “I Still Have Faith in You.” Jon Batiste “Freedom.” Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga, “I Get a Kick Out of You.” Justin Bieber, “Peaches.” Brandi Carlile, “Right On Time.” Doja Cat, “Kiss Me More.” Billie Eilish, “Happier Than Ever.” Lil Nas X, “Montero (Call Me By Your Name).” Olivia Rodrigo, “drivers license.” Silk Sonic, “Leave the Door Open.”

Let’s get this out of the way: Call me a homer, but Carlile’s timeless pandemic ballad is my personal favorite of the lot, a tune that’s going to age as well as a bottle of her charity wine. Unfortunately, Carlile’s path to the podium here isn’t the clearest. She shouldn’t have much competition from the Biebs or ABBA’s goofy make-up nom (the dancing queens and kings were snubbed during their heyday), and despite being this year’s most nominated artist, late night’s most likable jazzman Jon Batiste feels like a longshot in the marquee categories.

While the door could, in fact, open for the retro-chic magic of Silk Sonic – the throwback soul combo of Bruno Mars and Anderson .Paak – this feels like a battle of breakup anthems from two young pop queens. Smart money’s on Rodrigo, the teenage pop meteor who lit up 2021 with the dashboard-punching heartache of “drivers license.” Though it’s only happened twice, Rodrigo – who plays a sold-out WAMU Theater days after the Grammys – has a reasonable chance of sweeping the big four categories. That is if Eilish, who accomplished the same feat two years ago, doesn’t catch a W.

Album of the year

Jon Batiste, “We Are.” Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga, “Love for Sale.” Justin Bieber, “Justice (Triple Chucks Deluxe).” Doja Cat, “Planet Her (Deluxe).” Billie Eilish, “Happier Than Ever.” H.E.R., “Back of My Mind.” Lil Nas X, “Montero.” Olivia Rodrigo, “Sour.” Taylor Swift, “Evermore.” Kanye West, “Donda.”

We’ll have to wait until next year to see if “In These Silent Days,” the new crown jewel in Carlile’s catalog, will have a shot at the Grammys’ most coveted award, its release coming a day after this year’s eligibility window closed. But there’s still a Washington horse in this race. Lynnwood producer Mario Luciano and Seattle guitar virtuoso Jimmy James of Delvon Lamarr Organ Trio and the True Loves could become first-time Grammy winners for their work on H.E.R.’s “Slide,” the biggest tune on the R&B star’s nominated album.

Elsewhere, some Grammy voters might not want to touch controversial Kanye, who was barred from performing this year after taunting host Trevor Noah on social media and releasing an animated music video depicting the murder of Pete Davidson, the “SNL” star who’s dating West’s ex-wife, Kim Kardashian. Never mind the fact that the Grammys routinely snub hip-hop in the marquee awards, even though the academy expanded the nomination fields from eight to 10 specifically to include the genre.

Kanye’s old pal Taylor Swift also benefited from the expansion, after winning this very award last year with the folk-pop splendor of “Folklore”; its (slightly lesser) companion album “Evermore” could very well do the same this year. Gaga and Bennett’s second joint album of standards would make a nice story, saluting the 95-year-old crooner on what’s purportedly his final album, but would be a bigger upset than Bieber’s MLK-sampling “Justice,” a move critics ripped upon the album’s release. This one should come down to Swift, Eilish and the newcomer Rodrigo, whose pop-punk-spiked debut was a certified critical and commercial smash.

Song of the year

Alicia Keys and Brandi Carlile, “A Beautiful Noise.” Brandi Carlile, “Right On Time.” Doja Cat, “Kiss Me More.” Billie Eilish, “Happier Than Ever.” Ed Sheeran, “Bad Habits.” H.E.R., “Fight for You.” Justin Bieber, “Peaches.” Lil Nas X, “Montero (Call Me By Your Name).” Olivia Rodrigo, “drivers license.” Silk Sonic, “Leave the Door Open.”

It’s hard to believe that just over a year ago Lil Nas X still seemed like a potential one-hit wonder whose lackluster EP sneaked into the best albums race on the strength of one admittedly goofy viral hit. The “Old Town Road” phenom has since established himself as a formidable out-and-proud pop star who had Christian conservatives clutching their pearls – a time-honored pop music tradition – by giving Satan a lap dance in the NSFW video for “Montero (Call Me by Your Name).” (Avert your eyes, children!)

That still might not be enough to deny Rodrigo, whose “drivers license” truly was the song of 2021, regardless of what the academy says.

Carlile the Ballad Crusher’s dual entries is a testament to her timeless songwriting and the next-level vocal power she uncorked with “The Joke,” but a split vote hurts her chances here. Supremely talented R&B force H.E.R., whose musicality has (rightfully) hooked Grammy brass, took home this golden gramophone last year, though back-to-back upsets seem tough, even for H.E.R.

Best new artist

Arooj Aftab. Jimmie Allen. Baby Keem. FINNEAS. Glass Animals. Japanese Breakfast. The Kid LAROI. Arlo Parks. Olivia Rodrigo. Saweetie.

No offense to Billie Eilish’s big bro/songwriting partner FINNEAS, but there’s a 0.0% chance anyone not named Olivia wins this one – and you can bet the unaffordable Seattle house on that. Still, this is one of the more compelling best new artist classes in recent years, even if the “new” distinction feels dubious for some. After a decade of bandhood, viral lightning struck British indie-poppers Glass Animals and it’s hard to argue with the trio of buzzy rappers in Saweetie, The Kid LAROI and Baby Keem, with Keem a particularly astute pick for an organization often ripped for overlooking young rappers in their prime.

Personally, I’m a sucker for Arlo Parks, the Mercury Prize-winning indie-pop poet who charmed a Chop Suey crowd last year on her first American club tour. But the nominations shine an equally deserving light on Japanese Breakfast, led by Oregon-reared songwriter/bestselling author Michelle Zauner, and singer/composer Arooj Aftab, whose “Vulture Prince” album was one of the year’s most engrossing listens.