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A disturbance entering the Caribbean has potential to develop this weekend, forecasters say

Aug. 25, 2022 Updated Thu., Aug. 25, 2022 at 12:20 p.m.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two areas, one is a disturbance poised to enter the Caribbean.    (National Weather Service/National Weather Service/TNS)
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two areas, one is a disturbance poised to enter the Caribbean.   (National Weather Service/National Weather Service/TNS)
By Chris Perkins South Florida Sun Sentinel

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two areas, one is a disturbance poised to enter the Caribbean.

As of 8 a.m. Thursday, its odds of developing further held steady at 20% over the next five days. Though, according to the National Hurricane Center, conditions could become more favorable for development this weekend or early next week as it moves through the central and western Caribbean.

It is producing disorganized thunderstorms as it moves at 15 mph early Thursday.

Currently, it is expected to stay well south of South Florida as it moves west.

A second area of interest has emerged off the African coast and is expected to move west at 10 to 15 mph. As of early Thursday, the National Hurricane Center had given it a 10% chance of developing in the next 48 hours and a 20% chance in the next five days.

It my also slowly develop this week or over the weekend.

This could end up being just the third August since 1961 there hasn’t been a tropical storm in the Atlantic, according to AccuWeather.

There have only been three named storms so far this season — Alex, Bonnie and Colin — with the last one, Colin, dissipating on July 3, meaning this more than 50-day streak is the third-longest time in Atlantic hurricane history without a named storm since 1995.

The next named storm will be Danielle.

The longest dry spell since 1995 has been 61 days, from June 18 through Aug. 18 in 1999. However, that two-month run of inactivity was followed by a frenetic conclusion of the hurricane season that featured five Category 4 storms (Bret, Cindy, Floyd, Gert and Lenny) and the drenching Category 2 Irene, which achieved a rarity, with its eye passing over Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties in mid-October.

Forecasters say dry air, Saharan dust and wind shear have been among the reasons there haven’t been more storms this year.

The most active part of hurricane season is from now, mid-August, until the end of October, with Sept. 10 the statistical peak of the season.

The last Atlantic hurricane was Sam, which became a hurricane Sept. 24 and maintained that status until Oct. 5 as it cut a path between the United States and Bermuda.

Of the three named storms so far this season, only Alex made its presence known in South Florida by dumping as much as 12 inches of rain in some areas.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its updated hurricane season predictions earlier this month.

NOAA predicts 14 to 20 named storms and six to 10 hurricanes with three to five being major, meaning Category 3 or higher.

Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.

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