NCAA Tournament projections: Pac-12 at-large options expand with Oregon, Washington State in bubble territory
Seven weeks and change from Selection Sunday, the Pac-12’s outlook has improved incrementally in recent weeks.
Arizona, UCLA and USC remain on track for NCAA Tournament at-large bids, lofty seeds and manageable paths into the Sweet 16. But instead of standing alone, they have company lurking.
Oregon and Washington State are solidly on the bubble, and two more teams, Colorado and Stanford, have entered wing-and-a-prayer territory.
As we cast an eye to the Pac-12 Tournament, which begins March 9, the picture is clear:
In order to collect a respectable number of NCAA bids, the conference will need a surprise winner in Las Vegas – a 2022 version of Oregon State.
Anybody but the Wildcats, Bruins or Trojans.
Welcome to the Hotline’s updated NCAA projections.
– For those unfamiliar with the NET rankings system: The result of each game played falls within one of four quadrants, based on the NET ranking of the opponent and location of the game. (The categorization changes over time as teams move up and down the NET.)
Quadrant 1: Home vs. Nos. 1-30, Neutral vs. Nos. 1-50, Away vs. Nos. 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
Essentially, teams want to load up on Quad I and II wins and avoid Quad III and IV losses.
Listed in order of NET ranking (through Wednesday) …
Arizona
NET Ranking: No. 2
Record vs. Quad I and II: 4-1
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 10-0
NCAA projection: No. 1 seed
Comment: See the ball, and the players, move: The Wildcats are averaging 22 assists (tops in the nation) on 32 field goals per game.
UCLA
NET Ranking: No. 20
Record vs. Quad I and II: 4-2
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 7-0
NCAA projection: No. 3 seed
Comment: We sense a midseason lull coming, and that wouldn’t be the worst thing for a tournament-tested roster if it created the opportunity for major momentum in March.
USC
NET Ranking: No. 28
Record vs. Quad I and II: 4-2
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 10-0
NCAA projection: No. 4 seed
Comment: Combine the soft nonconference schedule with limited chances for first-class wins within the conference, and USC’s path to a No. 1 or 2 seed isn’t as wide as those of Arizona and UCLA.
Washington State
NET Ranking: No. 60
Record vs. Quad I and II: 1-5
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 9-2
NCAA projection: No bid
Comment: The Cougars didn’t play Oregon on Thursday because of COVID issues within their program. The Saturday visit to Oregon State has also been postponed.
Oregon
NET Ranking: No. 63
Record vs. Quad I and II: 3-5
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 7-1
NCAA projection: No. 10 seed
Comment: Oregon’s case for an at-large berth would benefit from an improvement in SMU’s resume from its current No. 64 NET ranking. As marquee nonconference wins go, that one doesn’t pack much of a wallop.
Colorado
NET Ranking: No. 87
Record vs. Quad I and II: 1-3
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 11-1
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: Too many wins against teams on the lower end of the NET scale and too few against those near the top. There’s time to fix that imbalance, but CU needs a win over the Bruins or Trojans this weekend.
Stanford
NET Ranking: No. 90
Record vs. Quad I and II: 5-4
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 5-1
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: Why no NET love despite the five Quad I and II victories? Perhaps because half of the Cardinal’s overall wins are against Quad IV teams. Even so, we suspect Stanford would fare better in a selection committee discussion than the metrics indicate.
Utah
NET Ranking: No. 118
Record vs. Quad I and II: 1-6
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 7-4
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: No wins since Dec. 21, and yet the Utes haven’t slipped much. That’s good news for the conference in that a loss to Utah by one of the contenders won’t carry severe metric consequences.
Cal
NET Ranking: No. 127
Record vs. Quad I and II: 1-7
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 8-2
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: Like a number of teams in the conference (Washington, Stanford, ASU and WSU, to name four), Cal is far more efficient on defense than offense.
Washington
NET Ranking: No. 139
Record vs. Quad I and II: 2-3
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 6-4
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: Had you told us prior to the season that Washington would be in the NET top 150 in mid-January, we’d have assumed you meant Washington University in St. Louis. (And I’m aware that it’s Division III.)
Arizona State
NET Ranking: No. 151
Record vs. Quad I and II: 3-7
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 3-2
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: The strong nonconference schedule and victory at Creighton continue to keep the Sun Devils afloat. And for that, the conference is grateful.
Oregon State
NET Ranking: No. 207
Record vs. Quad I and II: 0-9
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 3-4
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: Lose to the Beavers in Corvallis, and it’s a Quad II result. But lose on your home floor, and it’s a Quad IV. In other words: Just don’t.