Pac-12 power ratings: USC takes over while Oregon State and Washington State keep churning along
Ignored off the field and overlooked on it, Oregon State and Washington State stand together as a fascinating subplot to the Pac-12’s riveting season.
What do we mean by ignored and overlooked? Let’s rewind five months.
The backdrop to the 2022 season was set on June 30, when USC and UCLA announced their stunning departures for the Big Ten and created an instant, existential crisis for the conference.
The storyline quickly shifted to whether the Big Ten would add Washington, Oregon and the Bay Area schools to form a western division – and whether the Four Corners universities (Utah, Colorado, Arizona and ASU) would be tempted to jump into the Big 12.
Washington State and Oregon State were relegated to the role of bystanders, hoping the Pac-12 would stick together so they could avoid a possible future in the Mountain West.
Then came the start of competition and the emergence of four contenders, USC, UCLA, Utah and Oregon, which were joined eventually by Washington.
But quietly, as is their custom, the Cougars and Beavers kept churning along, beating lesser opponents decisively and pushing the heavyweights to the brink.
With one weekend remaining, both teams are bowl-eligible. Oregon State has eight wins, a top-25 ranking and a premium opportunity to spoil Oregon’s pursuit of the conference title. Washington State has seven wins and is peaking at just the right time, with Washington visiting on Saturday night.
In a season defined by elite quarterback play and powerhouse offenses across the conference, the Cougars and Beavers have won with defense.
They are first (OSU) and second (WSU) in yards-per-play allowed and are the only Pac-12 teams to rank in the top 75 nationally in that vital metric.
The Beavers are holding conference opponents to 18.3 points per game; the Cougars aren’t far behind at 22.5.
The defenses have been good enough often enough to offset the wobbly quarterback play that has nagged both teams.
The Beavers endured two mistake-filled games by Chance Nolan and the transition to a new starter, Ben Gulbranson.
The Cougars navigated erratic showings by Cam Ward but have found their rhythm with the return (from injury) of do-everything tailback Nakia Watson.
Oregon State’s head-to-head victory accounts for the one-game difference in their records and placement in the conference standings.
Since June 30, they have been bound together off the field and followed similar paths on it.
Now, with bowl berths in hand and stout defenses lighting the way, one last task awaits.
To this week’s power ratings …
1. USC (10-1/8-1)
Last week: 3
Result: won at UCLA 48-45
Next up: vs. Notre Dame (4:30 p.m. on ABC)
Comment: We noted the Trojans’ incredible turnover margin previously, but it’s worth repeated mention. In the three-point victories at Oregon State and UCLA, they had one giveaway and eight takeaways.
2. Oregon (9-2/7-1)
Last week: 2
Result: beat Utah 20-17
Next up: at Oregon State (12:30 p.m. on ABC)
Comment: The Ducks are No. 62 nationally in yards-per-rush allowed but No. 93 in defensive pass efficiency. They are vulnerable on the back line. Can OSU take advantage?
3. Utah (8-3/6-2)
Last week: 1
Result: lost at Oregon 20-17
Next up: at Colorado (1 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks)
Comment: Had you told us prior to kickoff that the Utes would hold Oregon to 20 points, we would have presumed a double-digit victory.
4. Washington (9-2/6-2)
Last week: 5
Result: beat Colorado 54-7
Next up: at Washington State (7:30 p.m. on ESPN)
Comment: Relevant stats this week: The Huskies have allowed seven sacks, tied for the second-lowest total in the FBS; the Cougars have 29 sacks, third highest in the Pac-12.
5. Oregon State (8-3/5-3)
Last week: 6
Result: won at Arizona State 31-7
Next up: vs. Oregon (12:30 p.m. on ABC)
Comment: If the victory total is an obvious sign of progress, here’s a subtle one: The Beavers are perfect as the betting favorite. They haven’t lost a game they were supposed to win.
6. UCLA (8-3/5-3)
Last week: 4
Result: lost to USC 48-45
Next up: at Cal (Friday, 1:30 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: UCLA is allowing fewer yards per play (5.63) this season than USC (6.05). The difference: The Trojans have forced 24 turnovers; the Bruins, 15.
7. Washington State (7-4/4-4)
Last week: 7
Result: won at Arizona 31-20
Next up: vs. Washington (7:30 p.m. on ESPN)
Comment: When kickoff arrives, it will have been 10 years and three days since WSU last won the Apple Cup on its home turf. The victorious quarterback on Nov. 23, 2012: Jeff Tuel.
8. Arizona (4-7/2-6)
Last week: 8
Result: lost to Washington State 31-20
Next up: vs. Arizona State (Friday, 12 p.m. on FS1)
Comment: Unless the Wildcats get embarrassed this week, the Hotline will consider their season a success because of the win total and breakthrough victory at UCLA. If they also claim the Territorial Cup, it becomes a rousing success.
9. Cal (4-7/2-6)
Last week: 10
Result: beat Stanford 27-17
Next up: vs. UCLA (Friday, 1:30 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: The Big Game rally overshadowed one horrendous decision by quarterback Jack Plummer and some awful playcalling by the offensive staff. The Bears need a complete and total overhaul on that side of the ball.
10. Arizona State (3-8/2-6)
Last week: 9
Result: lost to Oregon State 31-7
Next up: at Arizona (Friday, 12 p.m. on FS1)
Comment: The Hotline hasn’t been wrong in 3 or 4 minutes, but the relevant comparison for ASU this week could be USC last year: In their season finale under an interim coach, the Trojans were embarrassed by UCLA.
11. Stanford (3-8/1-8)
Last week: 11
Result: lost at Cal 27-17
Next up: vs. Brigham Young (8 p.m. on FS1)
Comment: We’ll set the Over/Under for the number of butts in the seats Saturday night (as opposed to the announced crowd) at 6,817. Although that might be a tad high.
12. Colorado (1-10/1-7)
Last week: 12
Result: lost at Washington 54-7
Next up: vs. Utah (1 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks)
Comment: Don’t be surprised if the Buffaloes announce a new head coach within 72 hours of loss No. 11.