Pac-12 point spreads for Week Four: Despite 3-0 record, WSU football opens as underdog against Oregon
There’s perfection on the scoreboard and perfection in the sportsbook. The Pac-12 has several teams that fit both categories.
Five have undefeated records: Oregon State, UCLA, USC, Washington and Washington State.
Three are perfect against the point spread: The Beavers, Trojans and Huskies have covered the number in each of their three games. (Across the Power Five, only 11 teams are 3-0 against the spread thus far, according to BetMGM.)
Welcome to Week Four, and the start of conference play.
Point spreads and totals taken from vegasinsider.com
Trends taken from oddsshark.com and Phil Steele’s College Football 2022
UCLA at Colorado
Line: UCLA -21 (total: 57.5)
Comment: The Bruins survived a tougher test from South Alabama than they are likely to receive from floundering Colorado, which has scored 30 points over three games and just issued a public statement of support for coach Karl Dorrell. That said, CU is 6-3 against the spread in its last nine games against UCLA and has won the past three meetings in Boulder. This would be a mammoth upset.
Oregon at Washington State
Line: Oregon -6.5 (total: 54)
Comment: An Oregon offense that has scored 111 points in its past two games faces a WSU defense ranked No. 19 nationally in scoring (12.7 points per game). The Cougars have covered the spread in 10 of their last 12 against the Ducks — and in four of the past five matchups in Pullman. Last year, the teams were deadlocked at halftime, but Oregon pulled away for a 38-24 win.
Arizona at Cal
Line: Cal -3 (total: 48.5)
Comment: Is this the week Arizona breaks its 11-game losing streak in conference road games? (Last win: Oct. 5, 2019, at Colorado.) The Bears typically play close, low-scoring games — the Under has been the right call in six of their last eight conference matchups. Cal has covered the spread in five consecutive home games against Arizona, but the Wildcats have won six in a row outright in the series, including the 10-3 affair last season in which the Bears were missing players due to COVID protocols.
USC at Oregon State
Line: USC -6.5 (total: 68)
Comment: Perhaps the top matchup of Week Four. The total is huge — the biggest of the week in the conference, by far — but still looks a bit low to us. USC is averaging 50.7 points per game, while the Beavers are close behind at 45.7 ppg. That said, the Under has covered in five of the past six matchups in Corvallis. OSU won last year 45-27 in the Coliseum and rushed for 322 yards in the process.
Stanford at Washington
Line: Washington -12.5 (total: 61.5)
Comment: The Huskies are coming off an emotional victory over Michigan State and could be vulnerable to a letdown. Meanwhile, Stanford was idle in Week Three and will have spent two weeks preparing for UW. The Cardinal has covered the spread in four of the past five matchups and won outright in ’17, ’19 and ’20 when the Huskies were ranked (as they are this week). Each of UW’s three home games this season has gone Over the total.
Utah at ASU
Line: Utah -15 (total: 52)
Comment: The Sun Devils parted ways with Herm Edwards on Sunday and named running backs coach Shaun Aguano as the interim boss. Utah has lost just three times in the past 52 weeks: at Oregon State in the middle of last season, to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl and to Florida in the 2022 opener. The Utes have covered the spread in six of the past eight against ASU and were last seen scoring 28 unanswered points in the showdown last season.