Best of the West: Eight games that will shape the stretch run for the Pac-12, MW and WCC
With Selection Sunday just 45 days away, the Hotline has identified the most significant games for the three major conferences in the West.
At this point, there are two NCAA Tournament locks from the Pac-12 (UCLA and Arizona), two from the West Coast Conference (Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s) and one from the Mountain West (San Diego State).
A handful of teams are on varying sides of the at-large bubble, including Arizona State, Utah, USC, Colorado, Oregon, New Mexico, Boise State, Nevada and Utah State.
The following eight games will help determine not only NCAA at-large bids but also seeds for the qualifying teams.
Feb. 3: Boise State at San Diego State. The Broncos are smack on the bubble with an impressive NET ranking (No. 21) but just one Quadrant I victory. They need to beat SDSU at least once — the return game is Feb. 28 in Boise — to solidify their position.
Feb. 4: Gonzaga at Saint Mary’s. A showdown for NCAA and WCC seeding. The Gaels have a one-game lead in the conference race. Win next week, and they will be tough to catch.
Feb. 7: Nevada at New Mexico. This bubble vs. bubble matchup will be hard-pressed to top the teams’ first meeting — a three-point Nevada victory in double overtime. The Lobos can’t afford to get swept.
Feb. 9: USC at Oregon. The Ducks are teetering and need to sweep the Los Angeles schools. But this duel is also critical for the Trojans and their improving resume.
Feb 18: Utah at Arizona State. Two bubble-sitters square off for the only time this season. The outcome will have implications for at-large bids and Pac-12 tournament seeding.
Feb. 25: Saint Mary’s at Gonzaga. The rematch doubles as the conference finale for both teams ahead of the WCC tournament. The No. 1 seed in Las Vegas could be on the line.
Feb. 25: San Diego State at New Mexico. The Lobos won the first game and might need a Quad I win to secure their place in the at-large field. SDSU likely will be playing for the top seed in the MW tournament.
March 4: Arizona at UCLA. No explanation necessary.
To the latest Best of the West rankings …
Also considered: Arizona State, Colorado, Eastern Washington, Seattle, UC Santa Barbara, Utah State and Utah Valley
(NET rankings through Wednesday)
1. UCLA (17-3/8-1 Pac-12)
Results: won at ASU 74-62, lost at Arizona 58-52
Next up: at USC (Thursday)
NET ranking: 5
Comment: The schedule softens after the trip across town with UCLA set to host the Washington and Bay Area schools and visit Oregon. Anything less than five wins out of those six games would be a surprise.
2. Arizona (17-3/6-3 Pac-12)
Results: beat USC 81-66 and UCLA 58-52
Next up: at Washington State (Thursday)
NET ranking: 11
Comment: Better Arizona versions than this have lost to lesser Washington teams than the ones the Wildcats will face on their final trip outside California.
3. Saint Mary’s (18-4/7-0 WCC)
Results: won at Pepperdine 73-44, beat Santa Clara 77-58
Next up: at BYU (Saturday)
NET ranking: 6
Comment: For those wondering what’s wrong with the Pac-12, we would like to point out that Aidan Mahaney, the superb SMC point guard, is playing in the WCC.
4. Gonzaga (17-4/6-1 WCC)
Results: lost to LMU 68-67, won at Pacific 99-90
Next up: at Portland (Saturday)
NET ranking: 12
Comment: We spot two trap games upcoming: The visit to Portland this weekend and a home date with Santa Clara next week before the showdown with Saint Mary’s.
5. San Diego State (15-4/6-1 MW)
Results: won at Colorado State 82-76 and Air Force 70-60
Next up: vs. San Jose State (Saturday)
NET ranking: 25
Comment: The flaw in SDSU’s resume: Just one Quad I victory. The strength of SDSU’s resume: No Quad II, III or IV losses.
6. USC (14-6/6-3 Pac-12)
Results: lost at Arizona 81-66, won at ASU 77-69
Next up: vs. UCLA (Thursday)
NET ranking: 62
Comment: USC’s victory over Auburn counts as a Quad II win because of the Tigers’ current NET ranking (No. 33). The Trojans need Auburn to climb into the top 30 to get credit for a Quad I victory.
7. Boise State (16-5/6-2 MW)
Results: lost at New Mexico 81-79, beat Fresno State 63-53
Next up: vs. Colorado State (Saturday)
NET ranking: 21
Comment: Unless they stumble against CSU or Air Force, the Broncos should be no worse than one game out when they swing through San Diego late next week.
8. Utah (14-7/7-3 Pac-12)
Results: beat WSU 77-63 and Washington 86-61
Next up: at Oregon State (Thursday)
NET ranking: 48
Comment: Unseemly but true for the Utes: They need BYU to win big down the stretch in order to put lipstick on that December loss in Provo.
9. Nevada (16-5/6-2)
Results: beat New Mexico 97-94 (2OT)
Next up: at UNLV (Saturday)
NET ranking: 34
Comment: Remember the Wolf Pack’s double-digit loss at LMU? It doesn’t seem so bad now that the Lions have snapped Gonzaga’s 75-game home winning streak.
10. New Mexico (18-3/5-3)
Results: beat Boise State 81-79, lost at Nevada 97-94 (2OT)
Next up: vs. Air Force (Friday)
NET ranking: 29
Comment: The late-November victory at Saint Mary’s looks better by the week and just might be the fuel that gets the Lobos into the NCAAs.