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The Spokesman-Review Newspaper
Spokane, Washington  Est. May 19, 1883

Trump holds decisive lead among Republican primary voters

Former US President and 2024 presidential hopeful Donald Trump applauds during a campaign rally in Erie, Pennsylvania, on July 29, 2023.    (Joed Viera/AFP via Getty Images/TNS)
By Ryan Teague Beckwith Bloomberg News

Donald Trump holds a commanding lead among likely Republican primary voters, with healthy margins among every demographic group, according to a new poll.

In a Siena College/New York Times poll released Monday, 54% of likely GOP voters backed Trump, compared to 17% for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, and 3% each for former Vice President Mike Pence, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott.

Trump has led in every poll of Republican primary voters taken since mid-March tracked by Real Clear Politics, but his lead has grown from single digits, while DeSantis has dropped in recent polls amid a campaign reboot.

In the Siena poll, Trump led among both men and women; every age group; every income bracket; voters who live in rural areas, suburbs and the city; those who live in the Midwest, Northeast, South and West; those who went to college and those who didn’t; and liberal, moderate and conservative Republicans.

He was weakest among White college graduates, who backed him 37% over DeSantis at 25%; voters aged 30-44, who backed him 41% to DeSantis at 28%; and liberal/moderate Republicans, who backed him 35% to DeSantis at 17%.

The poll of 932 likely Republican primary voters was conducted July 23-27, finishing just as a superseding indictment was filed in a case involving Trump’s handling of classified documents. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.96 percentage points.