Forte is clear favorite for 2023 Kentucky Derby. How often does the favorite win the race?

LEXINGTON, Ky. – As Kentucky Derby discourse reaches a fever pitch ahead of Saturday’s race, something that can’t be disputed is the hierarchy of this year’s 20-horse field, in particular at the top.

Forte is the clear favorite to win the Run for the Roses.

Trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Irad Ortiz, Forte was installed as the morning-line favorite at 3-1 odds following Monday afternoon’s post-position draw at Churchill Downs in Louisville. Forte was drawn into post No. 15 for the race.

His credentials are worthy of his position as the race favorite: Forte has won six of seven career starts, including five straight.

This five-race winning streak all came in graded stakes races, and includes the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity and Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland, as well as the Grade 1 Florida Derby in early April.

But simply being the morning-line race favorite doesn’t give you the Kentucky Derby title.

Justify in 2018 was the last race-time favorite to win the Derby, which is the position Forte is expected to occupy come Saturday at 3:57 p.m.

So with this in mind – and given the framing of the 2023 Kentucky Derby as a Forte versus the field showdown – let’s look at how race-time favorites have historically performed in the race.

Information used is from the pari-mutuel wager era (since 1908).

In the pari-mutuel era, favorites win more than a third of the time

The Kentucky Derby has been contested 115 times since 1908, and the post-time favorite has won the race 40 times.

This includes instances when there have been co-favorites at race time. For example, the 1973 Kentucky Derby won by Secretariat counts in this total despite Secretariat being a co-favorite for the Derby with Angle Light (who ended up finishing 10th).

This 40-for-115 success mark represents a 34.78% winning rate for Kentucky Derby favorites when they leave the starting gate.

This means Derby favorites tend to win the race slightly more than one-third of the time.

Of course, trends have emerged within this broad data set. The race-time Kentucky Derby favorite won six straight editions of the race from 2013-2018, and there was also a run of four straight favorites winning from 1972-1975.

Additionally, there have also been lengthy droughts when the Derby favorite hasn’t finished first.

Most notably this occurred from 1980 through 1999, when 20 editions of the Kentucky Derby passed without the favorite winning.

While the Derby favorite hasn’t won in the past four editions of the race, none of them has completely flopped on the First Saturday in May.

Improbable was fourth in 2019. Tiz the Law ran second in 2020. Essential Quality was third in 2021. Last year, favorite Epicenter had the lead in the stretch before finishing second behind historic long shot Rich Strike.

Want a safe Derby bet? Take the favorite to finish in the money

It’s not going to make you rich. It’s not going to make you cool. But if you want a safe bet for the Kentucky Derby that won’t lose you money, taking the Kentucky Derby favorite to finish in the money is the way to go.

In the 115 editions of the Kentucky Derby in the pari-mutuel wagering era (since 1908), the Derby favorite has finished in the top three on 73 occasions.

This is an in-the-money success rate of 63.48%, and again includes instances when two horses were co-favorites for the Derby come race time.

Simply put, the Kentucky Derby favorite (or one of the horses sharing that title) finished in the top three in nearly two-thirds of all races since 1908.

If nothing else, a financial interest in the Derby favorite is at least extremely likely to keep you invested in the entirety of the most exciting 2 minutes in sports.

Since 1908, the only Derby favorite at race time to not finish the race was Demons Begone in 1987.

Only 10 horses finished worse than 12th after leaving the starting gate as the Kentucky Derby favorite since 1908 – Cherry Pie (20th in 1923), Picketer (15th in 1923), Bay Beauty (13th in 1929), Proud Appeal (18th in 1981), Golden Derby (21st in 1981), Total Departure (20th in 1983), Althea (19th in 1984), Demons Begone (DNF in 1987), Serena’s Song (16th in 1995) and Friesan Fire (18th in 2009).