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Obesity drug market set to hit $100 billion by 2035, BMO says

Packets of the medication Wegovy move along a conveyor at the Novo Nordisk A/S production facilities in Hillerød, Denmark, on June 12.  (Carsten Snejbjerg/Bloomberg)
By Angel Adegbesan Bloomberg

The global market for novel weight-loss drugs like Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy is poised to reach $100 billion by 2035 as patients start to understand the efficacy of the medications.

That’s according to BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan David Seigerman, who, in a note to clients late Thursday, also said revenue for the medications could reach as high as $70 billion in the U.S. alone.

Wall Street’s appetite for all things weight-loss related has been on the rise after a study of Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy showed the medication reduced the risks of heart attacks and strokes.

The study results sent shares of drugmaker Eli Lilly soaring, and it remains the best-performing pharmaceutical stock so far this year in the S&P 500.

Seigerman sees Lilly as most poised to dominate the U.S. market into the 2030s. He said Lilly’s Mounjaro (tirzepatide) – already approved for diabetes – will anchor weight-loss treatments into the late 2030s if the drug gets approval for obesity by the end of the year.

“We see change coming in the U.S. payor and reimbursement environment and data-driven, broad support across medicine, politics, regulation, and culture for broad access to obesity therapeutics,” Seigerman wrote.

Morgan Stanley analysts projected in early August that the global obesity market will reach $77 billion in 2030, an increase from the previously estimated $54 billion.