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Seattle Seahawks

Will the Seahawks keep Geno Smith? Signs point to February deadline

Seattle QB Geno Smith speaks after the game against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lumen Field on Dec. 18 in Seattle.  (Tribune News Service)
By Bob Condotta Seattle Times

SEATTLE – Though the Seattle Seahawks have a number of questions to answer this offseason – including, suddenly, who they will hire as a coach – it’s unclear whether quarterback is one of them.

That will be determined soon.

Geno Smith is under contract for two more years after signing a deal amid much fanfare last March, and the conventional wisdom is that he will return to lead the offense in 2024.

But it’s not a slam dunk.

Also left without an answer is who else Seattle might have at quarterback when training camp begins in the summer. Smith is the only quarterback the team has under contract, with backup Drew Lock set to become an unrestricted free agent in March.

First, Smith.

His contract runs through 2025, but it contains no more guaranteed money, and the Seahawks could get out of it now if they want.

Whether they do will be revealed Feb. 16.

If Smith remains on Seattle’s roster on that date, his base salary of $12.7 million for the 2024 season becomes guaranteed. Smith is also due a $9.6 million bonus if he is on the roster on March 18. If Smith’s base salary is guaranteed, that would be a strong indicator that the Seahawks expect him to be the starter in 2024. If Smith receives the roster bonus, that would guarantee they expect him to start.

Smith could have been due up to $15 million more in 2024 had he hit incentives in 2023 related to passing touchdowns, completion percentage and passer rating.

Smith, however, didn’t hit any of them – the two games he missed because of injury are one reason. His touchdown passes decreased from 30 in 2022 to 20 to in 2023, yards from 4,282 to 3,624, completion percentage from 69.8% to 64.7%, and rating from 100.9 to 92.1.

His failure to hit the incentives, though, might increase the chances Seattle keeps Smith on his current deal. And his missing the incentives leaves Smith’s salary cap number for 2024 at the originally projected $31.2 million. That’s a hefty increase from his $10.1 million for this season.

But it’s also in line with a quarterback of Smith’s caliber, carrying the 12th-largest cap hit of all QBs for 2024, according to Spotrac.com.

When he spoke with the media Tuesday for the first time since the firing of coach Pete Carroll, Seahawks General Manager John Schneider gave a mostly glowing endorsement of his starting QB. Smith set a franchise record with five game-winning drives, including in two of Seattle’s last three games.

“I think Geno had a good season,” Schneider said. “It was a little bit opposite of last year. He started out really strong last year, and things dipped a little bit in the second half. This year he started out not quite as strong as last year and then finished in a real strong manner.”

The Seahawks have options with Smith because there is no guaranteed money until Feb. 16. They could cut him before then and take a $17.4 million dead-cap hit in 2024 while saving $13.8 million, or they could declare it a post-June 1 cut and take an $8.7 million dead-cap hit this year but save $22.5 million.

But they would have to make that decision before being certain of who might be available in free agency. Seattle has the 16th overall pick in the NFL draft, but that wouldn’t offer any guarantees. The lack of a second-round pick thanks to the Leonard Williams trade also might limit options.

Lock, meanwhile, played last season on a one-year deal worth $4 million that he signed a few days after Smith in March. He accepted at the time that he would return as the backup.

But Lock could have more options after performing respectably in two starts and two other relief appearances, going 48 for 76 for 543 yards with three TDs, three interceptions and an 81.2 passer rating. He memorably led a 92-yard drive in the final minutes to beat the Eagles on “Monday Night Football.”

Those games, as well as an NFL season in which the value of a reliable backup QB seemed to become more evident, might make Lock more attractive on the open market.

Seattle potentially taking on an increase of $20 million in Smith’s cap hit and having some other cap challenges might make it difficult to offer Lock a similar deal.

When he spoke with reporters the day after the season ended – before Carroll was fired – Lock said what might be expected, that he would love to return but will explore his options.

Asked about what he’ll look for as he enters free agency, Lock said “finding the best fit. Obviously, there’s a lot of things that go into it – city, offense, money. There’s everything that goes into it, but finding the best fit and feeling the most comfortable is really what’s going to matter the most.”

When asked where playing time fits into that equation, Lock laughed.

“Yes, that’s the unspoken part,” Lock said. “We don’t play football to not play, so playing ball is something that every quarterback, as long as you get a chance in this league, you are going to be fighting for that chance to get out on that field, and that’s No. 1.”

Although Lock said he enjoyed this season, he turned 27 in November and has started just five games since the 2020 season.

The four games Lock played this season give him a stronger foundation from which to enter free agency as opposed to a 2022 season in which he didn’t take a snap.

“Going into free agency with no tape the year before was (tough),” Lock said. “And now actually have a couple of clips showing where I’ve progressed from my last time stepping on the field, understanding what free agency is like now, I feel like I have a whole different mindset on the whole gig now.”

Of course, a new coach could change the equation for everyone involved.

If Lock doesn’t return, he knows he’ll always have that wondrous drive against the Eagles.

“For me, it’s No. 1 right now,” he said of where that drive and the touchdown pass to Jaxon Smith-Njigba that won the game ranks on his career highlights list. “Hoping to make a few more memories for me in my career.”