NFL picks and best bets for the conference championship games
I’ve had enough ups and downs to know not to brag about a winning streak, but you have to admit my picks have been impressive during the NFL playoffs. Sides, totals, team totals and player props have all cashed this month, with just one miss, a first touchdown prop that was admittedly a long shot.
The good times continued last week. In the first game of the divisional round, Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud did not throw an interception in Houston’s loss to the Baltimore Ravens, sending us to the window to collect a +130 wager. That night, the Green Bay Packers scored 21 points in their loss to the San Francisco 49ers, with a 2-point conversion in the third quarter putting Green Bay over the team total of 19.5 points and giving us another win. On Sunday, Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield soared past 244.5 passing yards, finishing with 349 yards in a season-ending loss to the Detroit Lions. Finally, the Kansas City Chiefs dispatched the Buffalo Bills on the road as slight underdogs to cash another plus-odds ticket.
That’s a clean sweep. That’s not bragging; it’s just me keeping track of all the bets I won last week. And I won all of the ones printed here. Let’s keep that going in the conference championship round.
Best bets record during playoffs: 9-1
Best bets record during the regular season: 16-17
Player prop record during the regular season: 8-8
Picks were made against the consensus point spreads as of Wednesday morning.
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (-3½)
Sunday, 3 p.m. TV: CBS
Pick: Under 44.5 points, playable to under 41.5 points
After an unusually difficult regular season, Kansas City’s offense is gaining momentum, but this will be the toughest test it has faced in months. Baltimore’s defense is holding opponents to almost nine fewer points per game than expected after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each play, per data from TruMedia. That’s the second-best mark in the NFL this season, including the playoffs. (Only the Cleveland Browns were better.) The Ravens are allowing a league-low 1.3 points per drive, with a red-zone defensive efficiency rate of 41%, second only to the Tennessee Titans and significantly better than the league average of 55%.
The Chiefs’ defense is much improved this season and solid in its own right, holding opponents to almost five fewer points per game than expected, which ranks fifth in the league. Kansas City is allowing 1.5 points per drive (third) with a red-zone defensive efficiency rate of 52%, not as good as Baltimore’s but still well above average, ranking 10th in the league.
After taking into account drive rates adjusted for competition faced during the regular season and playoffs, the projected score should fall below the key number of 41, based on my own simulations. I personally bet under 42.5 points at +118 odds early this week.
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers (-7)
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. TV: Fox 28
Pick: San Francisco TE George Kittle under 59.5 receiving yards
San Francisco star wide receiver Deebo Samuel is dealing with a shoulder injury he suffered during the 49ers’ 24-21 divisional round win over the Packers. Coach Kyle Shanahan told reporters there wasn’t a fracture, but that it was a similar injury to the one that forced Samuel to miss two games earlier in the season. If he can’t play or is hampered, it might seem logical to look at fellow wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk and tight end Kittle to pick up the slack in the passing game.
There are reasons to be cautious about Kittle’s prospects. Detroit has held opposing tight ends, as a group, to 55.3 receiving yards per game; after adjusting performance for strength of schedule, the Lions have the seventh-best pass coverage against tight ends this season. The average tight end performance against the Lions’ secondary this season has been 29 receiving yards. We can certainly agree that Kittle is an above-average tight end, but if Detroit’s secondary has one fewer threat to worry about, it should make it easier for the Lions to focus on Kittle and Aiyuk on Sunday – and to keep Kittle from hitting the 59.5 receiving yards total.
One thing I should address is Kittle’s two games with Samuel out of the lineup this season. One, a 78-yard performance in Week 7, was against Minnesota, the 18th-worst pass defense against tight ends, per DVOA. The other was an amazing 149-yard performance the following week against Cincinnati, the 27th-ranked pass defense against tight ends. A better comparison for us is San Francisco’s game against Cleveland, the No. 2 pass defense against tight ends, in Week 6. In that game, Kittle caught one of two targets for 1 yard despite playing a team-high 61 snaps.
You could also look at the 49ers’ opening game against Pittsburgh, the sixth-best pass defense against tight ends, in which Kittle was limited to 19 receiving yards while playing 47 out of 66 offensive snaps.