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Spokane, Washington  Est. May 19, 1883

Trump’s return may help oil and Elon Musk. Retail and unions, not so much.

A Shell plant in Monaca, Pennsylvania. Fossil fuel companies could benefit when Donald Trump returns to the presidency.  (Jeff Swensen/for the Washington Post)
By Julian Mark Washington Post

When Donald Trump assumes the presidency in January, he will have a chance to implement an economic vision that includes corporate tax cuts, sweeping tariffs on foreign goods and a wave of deregulation. If the second Trump administration follows through on his campaign ideas, these could be the business world’s winners and losers:

Winners

Fossil fuel companies

Trump is expected to immediately pull out of the 2015 Paris climate agreement, which aims to dramatically cut global emissions. In an April meeting with oil executives, he also pledged to end a Biden administration freeze on permits for new liquefied natural gas exports, and said he would auction more leases for oil drilling in the Gulf of Mexico and lift restrictions on drilling in the Alaskan Arctic.

Having donated millions to Trump’s campaign, oil companies cheered his victory, saying that “energy was on the ballot” and framing the election result as a mandate for fewer restrictions on the fossil fuel industry.

Cryptocurrency

Crypto companies and investors rallied behind Trump, giving generously to his campaign in the hope that he would reverse the Biden administration’s aggressive crackdown. In response, Trump has told supporters that he’d turn the United States into the “crypto capital of the planet” and would adopt proposals written by industry supporters.

Trump also stands to gain personally: In September, he and his two older sons announced their own cryptocurrency venture, World Liberty Financial – a platform that will allow investors to trade, borrow and lend the digital currencies. The price of bitcoin soared Wednesday to about $75,000 per coin, a 9% increase on the day.

Truth Social

Trump’s social media platform, Truth Social, is also in a position to win big. He launched the platform and its holding company, Trump Media & Technology Group, after he was suspended from Twitter (now called X) following the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol; he later took the company public in March. As of August, Trump owned nearly 115 million shares of the company, or more than 56%.

Trump used the social media platform as one of his primary megaphones during the election, and he will probably continue using it into his presidency as he used Twitter during his last term – which could help the platform’s visibility.

On Wednesday, shares of Trump Media & Technology closed at nearly $36 per share, up nearly 6%.

Businesses, generally

Trump and a Republican-controlled Congress have indicated they’ll move swiftly to cut taxes on businesses.

Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act slashed the corporate rate from 35% to 21%. He campaigned this cycle on cutting the rate further to 15% and reinstating many corporate tax write-offs that were capped in 2017 to reduce the cost of that law. Some of his advisers have suggested that a Trump administration could limit the corporate rate cuts to domestic manufacturers, although they did not provide details about which companies would be eligible.

Elon Musk

The CEO of Tesla and Space X threw his support behind Trump in July, becoming one of his most visible backers and spending at least $118 million of his own money to get Trump elected. Trump has discussed an advisory role for Musk, such as leading a government office focused on making large-scale cuts to federal spending.

Many of Musk’s companies do extensive business with the federal government – especially SpaceX, whose operations are heavily intertwined with NASA – and they stand to gain from new federal contracts. Musk’s other companies, such as electric vehicle maker Tesla and brain-implant company Neuralink, are seeking regulatory approvals on autonomous vehicles and medical devices, respectively.

Shares of Tesla rose more than 14% Wednesday on the election results, though it remains to be seen how Tesla will fare, given Trump’s previously stated opposition to electric vehicles. Musk also owns the social media company X, which competes with Trump’s social media platform, Truth Social.

Losers

Retail

Trump has vowed to impose the heaviest tariffs on foreign products since the 1930s, including a 60% levy on Chinese products and 10 to 20% taxes on all other foreign imports. That means companies that rely on foreign suppliers will be faced with the choice of taking a large hit to profits or passing the cost onto consumers, retail analyst Neil Saunders wrote in a Wednesday note to investors.

In anticipation of tariffs, companies – including producers of clothing, auto parts and other hardware – have said publicly that they’re preparing to raise prices.

Labor unions

A Trump presidency will probably mean the unwinding of numerous policies enacted under President Joe Biden aimed at strengthening labor unions. Though Trump has not publicly talked about how he’d handle most labor issues, his administration will probably seek to reverse Biden administration policies that made it easier for gig workers, janitors and other independent contractors to qualify as union-eligible employees. He may also seek to undo a landmark 2023 ruling that forces employers to recognize unions if those companies used illegal tactics to fight labor organizing attempts.

One union, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, has made inroads with the GOP; union president Sean O’Brien spoke at the Republican National Convention in July and the union ended its practice of backing Democratic presidential candidates by declining to make any endorsement this year. People close to Trump’s transition team have said Teamsters leaders would be likely to wield influence over appointments and labor policy.

Electric vehicles, in general

Trump has told oil executives that he would scrap some of the Biden administration’s most ambitious rules aimed at ramping up the sale of EVs while cutting carbon emissions from gas-powered models. Such moves would represent a major rollback of Biden policies that incentivized the auto industry to ramp up production.

Other than Tesla, shares of domestic EV specialists fell 5% or more Wednesday, including Lucid Group, Nio and Rivian Automotive.