Seahawks truths through 6 weeks: Geno Smith, O-line carrying a heavy burden
Seattle Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald spent the weekend reviewing film, meeting with his staff, self-scouting and searching for answers amid a three-game losing streak, capped by Thursday night’s defeat to the San Francisco 49ers.
On Monday, Macdonald will meet with his players and have direct, honest conversations about where they’re coming up short and what needs to happen next. It’s his version of Pete Carroll’s Tell the Truth Monday, essentially.
The Seahawks are 3-3 and second place in the NFC West with a road trip to Atlanta coming up in Week 7. In the spirit of Macdonald’s messaging, let’s dive into one truth for each phase of the game through six weeks (all stats provided by TruMedia unless stated otherwise).
Pass-happy offense
Quarterback Geno Smith leads the league with 277 dropbacks, averaging 46.1 per game. Nobody else has more than 251 dropbacks, and fewer than half of the league’s starters have more than 200. The only qualifying quarterbacks to average more than 46 dropbacks over a season (minimum six games) since 2000 are Matthew Stafford in 2012 (48.2) and Andrew Luck in 2015 (47.3), a year in which he played only seven games.
Smith’s total dropback number is influenced by third downs, two-minute drills and playing from behind, but Seattle entered Week 6 with the second-highest early down pass rate in the league in neutral situations, according to RBSDM.com, which charts first- and second-down plays outside the final two minutes of each half when the game is within reach for both teams. In other words, even when Seattle isn’t playing catch-up, offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb is still heavily leaning on the passing game. Seattle also ranks last in play-action dropback rate, which increases the burden on Smith and his protection unit.
Seattle cannot consistently function at a high level with that level of reliance on the passing game. There’s just too much stress on the dropback offense to be nearly flawless, and it’s been anything but. Seattle’s offense is among the league leaders in penalties and penalty EPA, meaning the flags against them have been more damaging than nearly every other offense.
“When you’re a team that moves and shakes the way that we do and shifts and motions, which is an asset for us, we’ve got to make sure we’re taking advantage of how we’re able to operate,” Macdonald said. “We should be cleaner on that front.”
The offensive line isn’t equipped to operate in a dropback-heavy scheme. Right tackle Stone Forsythe has allowed pressure at one of the highest rates in the league (Macdonald said Friday he doesn’t have an update on starter Abraham Lucas, who hasn’t played this year and remains on the PUP list following offseason knee surgery). Four of Seattle’s five starters up front have allowed multiple sacks (left tackle Charles Cross has allowed only one).
Smith’s pressure-to-sack rate is better than average because of his ability to navigate muddy pockets, but maintaining that while ranking near the top of the league in pressure rate is a lot to ask.
The troubling part for the Seahawks is that simply running that ball more won’t solve everything. They need to run it to achieve balance. Running back Ken Walker III had just 19 yards on five carries in the Week 5 loss to the Giants. Grubb blamed himself for the lack of attempts, then tried to get Walker more involved in Week 6. Walker had 14 carries for just 32 yards and a touchdown on Thursday night. His longest carry went for 8 yards.
In the offseason, Grubb told the players that the run game would be the foundation of their scheme. Through six games, that hasn’t been the case. Whether Grubb can change that will determine the rest of Seattle’s season.
Smith is on pace to throw for 5,000 yards, but he has as many touchdown passes as interceptions (six) after committing two turnovers against the 49ers. On Friday, Macdonald expressed faith in Smith and referred to his second interception as a “team pick,” implying that the intended target, DK Metcalf, was also to blame, though he didn’t elaborate.
That play was an example of Seattle’s other problem on offense: Metcalf’s targets have been inefficient. He ranks in the bottom third of the league in EPA per target among qualified receivers. He has dropped three passes and lost two fumbles while catching only 57.4% of his targets, which, if sustained throughout the season, would be the second-worst rate of his career (he caught 55.5% of his targets last season). Metcalf is often shadowed by the opponent’s top cornerback and double-teamed on obvious passing downs, so marrying high volume with elite efficiency probably isn’t feasible, but a point of emphasis for Metcalf, Grubb and Smith must be getting better results on targets to their No. 1 receiver.
Back seven is struggling
Last week, Macdonald called out his second-level defenders when assessing the run defense, which was once again poor against the 49ers. San Francisco’s skill players rushed for more than 200 yards and had three explosive runs. Seattle’s run defense ranks among the league’s worst.
“It’s not just one thing,” Macdonald said. “If it was just one thing, you’d just be, ‘OK, we’ll just hit the one-thing button, and we’ll get it fixed, and that’s it.’ But if you do think about just football in general, if you do create explosive plays, either you’re getting beat one-on-one down the field – which right now, that’s not happening – or it’s missed tackles and angles.
“There’s creating lanes where guys can run through your defense unimpeded, which there’s just too many of those right now. So, that’s something that we’re going to attack.”
During this three-game losing streak, the back seven has been struggling to defend the pass, too. Devon Witherspoon has been playing well all season, and cornerback Tre Brown bounced back Thursday after the worst game of his career in Week 5. It’s the spine of the defense that has had issues (Macdonald has, on multiple occasions, said the defensive front is playing well).
Free safety Julian Love gave up a pair of touchdowns on Thursday. Rayshawn Jenkins played a lot of nickel Thursday because Seattle was without cornerback Riq Woolen (ankle), and the veteran defensive back had multiple lapses in coverage that allowed Purdy to move the chains through the air. He also whiffed on a tackle in open space on Isaac Guerendo’s 76-yard run that put the game away.
Inside linebackers Tyrel Dodson and Jerome Baker have contributed to Seattle’s problems against the run and play-action passes. Neither problem falls squarely on their shoulders, but some of the explosive plays Seattle has allowed are a result of the underneath defenders either failing to feel the routes developing behind them or struggling to get off blocks and get to their run gaps.
Seattle overhauled the linebacker and safety rooms this offseason hoping for better play at those positions. That experiment hasn’t panned out.
“It’s a lot of great things, but the variance is too high,” Macdonald said of his second-level defenders. “A lot of great plays on tape. However, when we’re not doing it the way we need to do it, the ball’s getting out (for explosives). Those are the things we need we need to eliminate.”
There’s a trickle-down effect when a defense can’t stop the run or defend play action. By EPA per play, Seattle has been one of the league’s worst on early downs. That makes it harder to put the opposing offense in obvious passing situations on third downs and unleash those exotic blitzes and pressure packages that Macdonald became known for in Baltimore. Seattle will come out of Week 6 with one of the league’s highest pressure rates, but those pressures aren’t resulting in many negative plays. Seattle’s defense has forced only four turnovers, a total that ranks ahead of only four teams that have played six games.
Macdonald’s point about Seattle being plagued by multiple problems in run defense applies to the whole unit. There are multiple areas of concern, and even when 10 guys are doing the right thing on one play, all it takes is the 11th guy making a mistake to result in an explosive play. That said, the spine of the defense should be the focal point coming out of this mini bye week. Seattle is playing well on the perimeter, both against the run and the pass, so if the guys manning the middle of the field elevate their game, the defense might look the way it did during the first three weeks of the season.
Special teams needs change
Seattle has produced positive plays on special teams, such as Love’s blocked field goal in Week 2 and Laviska Shenault Jr.’s 97-yard kickoff return touchdown on Thursday. And yet the Seahawks are still near the bottom of the league in special teams EPA. Shenault lost a fumble on a kickoff on Thursday, and punt returner Dee Williams muffed a punt in Week 1. Then there’s the blocked field goal the Giants returned for a touchdown, a play Macdonald attributed to a technique error by his protection unit.
Beyond those plays, Myers has missed multiple field goals, and Williams, an undrafted rookie, has made some questionable choices while fielding punts, which is one reason why Seattle’s average starting field position on punt returns ranks in the bottom third of the league. Seattle’s punt coverage unit hasn’t been very good, either.
Shenault’s kickoff return touchdown – one of only two in the NFL this season – is probably enough to keep him back there for the foreseeable future. But on Friday, Macdonald lamented “some decisions we’re making in the return game,” which might signal a much-needed open competition for Williams’ job as the primary return man on punts.