California Democrats reveal map that could gain them five House seats

LOS ANGELES – Democrats unveiled a congressional map Friday for California that would allow them to capture five more House seats, likely wiping out the gains Republicans hope to make in Texas and intensifying a brutal national redistricting fight.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) said he was pushing the plan to combat President Donald Trump’s attempts to carve up districts in several red states in hopes of preserving Republicans’ narrow control of the House after next year’s midterm elections. When the California legislature returns Monday, Democrats will introduce measures to hold a special election in November to amend the state constitution to adopt the new map. Under the proposal, the state would alter its map only in response to other states and would resume using nonpartisan lines after the 2030 Census.

Newsom’s action comes as Texas Republicans prepare to approve a map that would create as many as five new GOP districts in their state after a weeks-long fight. Democrats in the state House there fled Texas two weeks ago to stall that plan and draw attention to what Republicans are doing. The Texas Democrats are expected to return next week, clearing the way for Republicans there to adopt their new map.

“We anticipate these maps will completely neuter and neutralize what is happening in Texas,” Newsom said, emphasizing that the new maps will go into effect only if Republican states move ahead with their new GOP-leaning maps. “There’s still an exit ramp.”

As the nation’s most populous state, California has the largest congressional delegation. Under the current lines, Democrats hold 43 of the state’s 52 seats and Republicans hold nine. The new map could tilt the Democrats’ advantage in the state to 48-4.

The proposal by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will be introduced in California’s legislature on Monday. It would rejigger the districts held by Republican Reps. Ken Calvert, Darrell Issa, Kevin Kiley and Doug LaMalfa, transforming them from safe Republican districts to ones where a Democrat is more likely to win, according to a copy of the map released late Friday. The map would also add more Democrats to the perpetually close swing district held by Rep. David G. Valadao (R), though it could remain competitive in part because low turnout in the Central Valley often makes the outcome unpredictable. All five districts would have more Democratic registered voters than Republican registered voters, according to data from Redistricting Partners, the consultant that drew the map for the Democrats.

In addition, the newly drafted Democratic map would strengthen the party’s grip on at least four toss-up seats that are currently held by Democrats. And it would help Democrats enhance their numbers in the Republican-leaning district held by Rep. Adam Gray (D).

Putting the map in place for next year will be difficult because California’s constitution requires a nonpartisan commission to draw political lines under amendments adopted by voters in 2008 and 2010 with the support of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R). Newsom and state lawmakers will be asking voters to amend the state constitution to suspend that requirement for the next three congressional elections, if Texas or another state establishes new maps.

Schwarzenegger, who is expected to play a major role fighting the ballot measure, posted a picture of himself lifting weights at his gym in California on Friday in a black custom-made T-shirt that was profanely against the measure.

Newsom, a potential 2028 presidential candidate, is offering the Democrats’ most robust response so far to Trump’s call for new maps in Republican-led states. The clashing proposals from Texas and California signal that politicians from both parties are increasingly willing to go out of their way to rig maps in their party’s favor.

Republicans are also considering drawing new maps in Florida, Indiana, Ohio and Missouri. Democrats are considering shifting districts to the left in Illinois, Maryland and Oregon. Republicans have more opportunities to improve their fortunes, redistricting experts have said.

House Republicans from California in a statement said they support nonpartisan redistricting in their state and urged voters to oppose the ballot measure. LaMalfa said he believes voters will reject Newsom’s proposal at the ballot box.

“They don’t want our grubby hands as politicians on this process,” he said in an interview.

Kiley has introduced a bill in the House to prevent states from drawing maps in the middle of the decade and said he doesn’t want California, Texas or other states to establish new lines now. He said he expects litigation will challenge every step of the process, including the maps and the special election.

“Where does this end?” he said. “It will make a farce of representative government if district lines are disappearing like quicksand at any available opportunity.”

A fierce campaign over the ballot measure is quickly taking shape with national GOP leaders entering the fray. Charles Munger Jr., a physicist from Palo Alto who was one of the driving forces behind the original ballot measures setting up California’s independent redistricting commission, is now also the top funder for the newly formed Protect Voters First coalition that is calling the Newsom-backed ballot measure “a threat to democracy and fair elections in California.”

Munger is expected to spend tens of millions of dollars fighting to keep California’s independent process alongside civic groups that were involved in pushing for the changes in 2008 and 2010. Munger’s group is arguing that the courts are unlikely to abolish the nonpartisan process now that it’s enshrined in the state’s constitution.

California Democrats said they believe in nonpartisan redistricting but want every state to follow the same rules. They said they must match Republicans if they draw new maps.

“If they’re down in the mud, then we need to go down there and mud wrestle,” California state Rep. Isaac Bryan (D) said in an interview.

The risks for both sides are high. Voters could reject the California plan. Republicans are not guaranteed to win all of the new seats in Texas. Lawsuits could result in courts blocking some new maps but not others. Incumbents in both parties could press their leaders to end the standoff as they learn they could be placed into more competitive districts.

Republicans and Democrats are expected to spend heavily in California’s special election. Democrats plan to portray the new map as a check on Trump, and Republicans are eager to call out what they view as Democrats’ hypocrisy and deliver a setback to Newsom.

States are required to draw new political lines every 10 years after each census to ensure districts have equal populations. Politicians from both sides often use that process to give their political party an edge, but redrawing lines in the middle of a decade is unusual.

The latest redistricting dispute started in Texas and continues to simmer there. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) called a special legislative session last month to draw a new map, but dozens of Democrats in the Texas state House stymied Republicans by heading to Illinois and other states led by Democrats. Under Texas’s constitution, at least 100 of the state House’s 150 members must be present to conduct business.

Abbott on Friday called Newsom’s plan to counteract his efforts “a joke” and questioned his ability to get voters to agree to it. “He’s posturing,” he said during a news conference in Austin.

Texas Republicans ended their 30-day special session Friday and two hours later started another one. Abbott has said he will continue to call sessions, putting pressure on Democrats to come back or remain away from their families and private-sector jobs for months. Democrats said this week that they would return once Texas ends its initial special session and California Democrats formally introduce their plan, which would clear the way for them to go back as soon as Monday.

Texas state House Speaker Dustin Burrows (R) said he would begin holding hearings on the map and legislation to respond to last month’s deadly floods as soon as the Democrats returned. Lawmakers will approve the measures by the end of the month, he said.

Republicans have issued civil arrest warrants for the absent Democrats, asked the state Supreme Court to remove them from office and warned they will fine each of them $500 for every day they are gone.

“In the real world, if you don’t show up to do your job, you lose your job,” Abbott said on CBS News Texas.

Abbott said he would consider altering Texas’s map to add up to 10 GOP districts instead of five, as Republicans originally proposed. Republicans currently hold 25 of the state’s 38 congressional seats.

Texas state Rep. Mitch Little (R) said he wasn’t sure that was feasible. “It will be difficult to get additional seats, but just because it’s difficult doesn’t mean we shouldn’t do it,” he said.

Little said he wants to go beyond congressional redistricting and draw a new map for the state legislature. Republicans hold 88 of the 150 seats in the state House, and if they had another 12 they could conduct business even if Democrats leave the state in the future.

While the Democrats in the Texas state House departed, Democratic state senators stayed behind and have been arguing against the proposed map on the floor. Texas state Sen. Carol Alvarado (D) in an interview praised California Democrats for their willingness to redraw their map, saying she hoped it would prompt Republicans to reconsider their plans.

“This is not even gerrymandering,” she said. “It’s Trump-mandering, and all the Republicans are pandering to the Trump-mandering.”