These places will be hit by big waves and coastal flooding as Hurricane Erin passes
Hurricane Erin, a massive and dangerous Category 2 storm with winds of 100 mph, will make its closest approach to the United States beginning Wednesday, after nine days of churning across the Atlantic.
Despite passing hundreds of miles offshore, Erin will pose a serious threat to coastal communities up and down the Eastern Seaboard because of the sheer size of its tropical storm-force wind field, extending 265 miles from its center. This will cause high-energy, dangerous ocean waves to reach 1,000 miles from the storm - stretching from Florida to Newfoundland, Canada.
In an advisory early Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center cautioned beachgoers against swimming at most East Coast beaches due to life-threatening surf and rip currents.
From Wednesday into Thursday, the storm will pass just over 200 miles offshore of North Carolina’s Outer Banks, where evacuation orders remain in place for portions of Dare and Hyde counties - including Hatteras and Ocracoke islands. North Carolina’s governor, Josh Stein, declared a state of emergency.
During Tuesday evening’s high tide, ocean water began to wash over vulnerable sections of Highway 12, the region’s main road. These effects are set to worsen with each high tide cycle, probably peaking on Thursday evening.
“If you are still on Hatteras Island and have not yet evacuated, now is the time to do so,” wrote Dare County Emergency Management in a statement late Tuesday.
A dozen eastern states are under an alert related to hazardous coastal conditions from Erin, extending from Florida to Massachusetts, with flooding, strong winds, dangerous surf, rip currents and beach erosion expected. Pockets of heavy rain will affect portions of the Northeast late Wednesday, as moisture from Erin combines with a front.
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Places where Erin will hit hardest
Erin’s marine effects will be felt far and wide along the East Coast. Rising water levels at the beach and near the coast will pose the biggest threat to life and property through the end of the week. Coastal conditions may not return to normal until early next week.
The remnants of the storm may affect Ireland on Monday or Tuesday.
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Florida, Georgia and Carolinas
- Jacksonville, Florida, to Fort Pulaski, Georgia: Minor coastal flooding may occur during Wednesday evening’s high tide. Rip currents and big waves will create dangerous conditions at the beach.
- Charleston, South Carolina: Moderate to potentially major coastal flooding may occur on Wednesday and Thursday, especially during evening high tides, with dangerous waves higher than 5 feet slamming the shore.
- Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina, including Cape Hatteras: Marine conditions will be “extremely life-threatening,” from Wednesday through Thursday, according to the National Weather Service in Newport/Morehead, North Carolina. During that time, waves will reach 15 to 25 feet and storm surge - the abnormal rise in seawater level during a storm - of up to 4 feet is predicted along the immediate coastline. Erin’s outer rain bands and wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph will lash coastal areas. In the hardest-hit areas in the Outer Banks, homes, businesses and vehicles may be flooded and/or damaged and roads will become impassable.
Hurricane Erin’s effects will hit the region at the same time as higher astronomical tides, exacerbating coastal flooding threats, the National Weather Service added.
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Virginia and Maryland
- Virginia Beach to Ocean City, Maryland: Moderate to major coastal flooding is expected, especially during high tides on Wednesday evening, Thursday morning and Thursday evening, with the potential for numerous road closures and the inundation of homes and businesses near the shore. Large waves of 10 to 14 feet, rip currents and beach erosion are also anticipated.
- Chesapeake Bay area from Norfolk to Baltimore: Higher-than-normal water levels of up to 3 feet may inundate areas along the shores of the Chesapeake Bay and tidal Potomac River, where coastal flood warnings, watches and advisories are in place. The highest risk will probably be during high tides on Wednesday and early Thursday.
“Dangerous shore break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom causing neck and back injuries,” wrote the National Weather Service in Wakefield, Virginia.
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Delaware and New Jersey
- Bethany Beach, Delaware, to Seabright, New Jersey: 1 to 2 feet of water may inundate coastal and bayside communities as well as tidal waterways, causing roads to become impassable. Dangerous surf will slam the coastline, especially on Thursday. The worst conditions will probably coincide with the high tide on Thursday evening.
“The sea will be quite angry,” wrote the National Weather Service in Mt. Holly, New Jersey.
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New York and New England
- Staten Island to Montauk, New York, and Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts: High surf advisories cover this zone, with a risk for life-threatening swimming and surfing conditions, including rip currents and localized beach erosion. Wave heights and energy will peak later Thursday into Friday, when waves of 16 feet may hit the south shore of Long Island, causing the potential for dune erosion and localized coastal flooding.
Dangerous beach conditions, like those seen in Nantucket on Tuesday, will only intensify in the days ahead.
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Bermuda
Erin will pass 300 to 400 miles west and north of Bermuda from Thursday into Friday, with dangerous 10- to- 20-foot waves likely and the potential for rogue waves of up to 30 feet. Squalls of heavy rain and strong, tropical-storm-force winds will also hit the island.
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Atlantic Canada
Erin is expected to pass well south of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland from Friday into Saturday, although rough and dangerous seas are expected along southern coastlines.
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Western Europe
The jet stream will carry the remnants of Erin toward Western Europe early next week. By that stage, it will no longer be a hurricane - the storm will undergo extratropical transition, losing its tropical core as it merges with a separate midlatitude weather system. Even so, the system may still pack a punch, bringing a risk of strong winds and large, dangerous waves to several countries, especially Ireland.
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New storm threats
The Hurricane Center is monitoring a pair of additional disturbances tracking across the eastern Atlantic this week.
At this point, neither disturbance looks particularly likely to pose a risk to the United States, but both still bear watching.
The first tropical wave, with a 60 percent chance of development, will arrive in the Windward and Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday, bringing downpours. After that, it will probably take a northward path into the open waters of the western Atlantic and may strengthen.
The second wave - considered an invest because of its relatively organized state - has a 30 percent chance of development into a storm and could reach the Caribbean Sea over the weekend.